Saturday, November 10, 2012

Republicans, Pollsters To Contact Me?

Do NOT contact me about media bias, as I supported neither Obama nor Romney in this election. While I predicted that Obama would win in a landslide, this is because, unlike pollsters, I actually reviewed the numbers and demographics. There was absolutely no way that Romney would win this election, unless you couldn't do basic math (granted, about 80% of Americans can't, so ...).

I nailed it in my post Obama Regains Probability Lead Against Romney:

Obama is not only popular among Echo Boomers and minorities, but also single women, as this article explains (Obama is actually popular among women, in general). Considering the low marriage rate in the United States (51%), this carries a lot of weight.

The low marriage rate in this country will continue along with Echo Boomers having growing voices in politics. I asserted that Obama would easily win because of three demographic groups: Echo Boomers, single women and minorities. How Gallup, Real Clear Politics or Rasmussen missed these (or pretended they didn't matter) is beyond me. Needless to write, Twitter was the voice of reason, unlike polls. Obama almost always was more popular on Twitter and thus maybe people should begin ignoring polls and looking at Twitter Sentiment.

Add to that, the New York Times showed the demographics behind Obama's support. As I predicted, those three demographic groups strongly supported Obama.

This is what a person who can't do math sounds like.

Despite some media claims, this election wasn't even remotely close in the electoral college or popular vote. Obama received over 3 million more votes than Romney, and (once Florida comes in for Obama - and it will), Obama received 332 electoral votes. Romney? Only 206.

Pollsters, like Gallup and Rasmussen, showed how little credibility they had, while Republicans learned that they can't ignore Generation Y anymore. Maybe it's time both groups contact me about what they're doing wrong, because wow, talk about missing the mark.

Added: As far as the pollsters go, they should also contact Nate Silver and Mish. Before it even began, Mish said it was all but over, and indeed, it was. And this election (2004) is what a "close" election looks like.