Thursday, August 22, 2013

Gallup Fails Again With Generation Y

But this time, socially.

Astute readers may recall that right before the election, Gallup predicted that Romney would win by 1%. Romney actually lost by 3.9%. Gallup drastically underestimated the impact of Echo Boomers (so did Republicans), among other demographic groups, and demonstrated that their approach with Generation Y is simply wrong (recall that I forecast Obama would win by 4.5% based on my research methods - over 700% more accurate than their methods). As I wrote in Republicans, Pollsters To Contact Me (by the way, notice how I also predicted how the Florida votes would favor Obama):

The low marriage rate in this country will continue along with Echo Boomers having growing voices in politics. I asserted that Obama would easily win because of three demographic groups: Echo Boomers, single women and minorities. How Gallup, Real Clear Politics or Rasmussen missed these (or pretended they didn't matter) is beyond me. Needless to write, Twitter was the voice of reason, unlike polls. Obama almost always was more popular on Twitter and thus maybe people should begin ignoring polls and looking at Twitter Sentiment.

Now Gallup asserts that socially most Echo Boomers want to marry (which, depending on how the question is asked, may be true). Some scholars and pundits will use these data to show that the marriage rate for Echo Boomers may not be as low as some predict (like yours truly), but I would caution anyone from using Gallup's data. As shown in the above example, Gallup neither understands Echo Boomers, nor understands how to survey Echo Boomers.

I predict that Generation Y will have a lower marriage rate than other generations, and this is primarily impacted by Millennial men, as I wrote in U.S. Males Dump Marriage:

While my study does not calculate age (unlike the Pew study), this seems to reconcile with my findings where Millennial males didn't seem interested in the prospect of marriage. As it turns out, male Echo Boomers may be wise for abstaining from marriage.

And I will be right, again. Just like Gallup uses their methodology (which was off in the 2012 election), using social media, I have demonstrated how accurate my methodology is:

I've also pointed out one major fact, that nobody seems to want to acknowledge in this discussion. Millennial men have tons of time; so, in a sense, any male Echo Boomer could state that may want to marry someday, just not today and thus they wouldn't fall into the "never" category. However, this does not mean that their sentiment toward marriage is positive (which my study in the linked post shows is the opposite). Unlike U.S. women, U.S. men have a strongly negative view toward marriage and as the Pew Study shows, Millennial men don't see marriage as important as Millennial women do. But, they could change their mind, and from an evolutionary standpoint, being an older husband and father carries great genetic goodies:

However, previous studies have shown that children of older fathers have longer telomeres (probably because as a man ages, telomeres in his sperm get longer). Our study shows for the first time that this happens across at least two generations: older fathers not only have offspring with longer telomeres, but their sons also have offspring with longer telomeres. That is, having an older grandfather on your dad’s side at the birth of your father predicts that you will have longer telomeres.

Conclusion: approximately 33-40% of Millennials will never marry because of male Echo Boomers' sentiment (or attitude) toward marriage. If they do, expect the age of marriage to rise.