What This Year's Olympics Says About Attention

Note: I do not own a TV. I also do not consume TV of any kind. I recently heard a discussion about the beginning of a world wide game called Olympics. While completely unrelated, the way people keep saying this word makes it sound like they're saying "oh limp dicks!" when they say it. Either way, my friends asserted that the beginning was viewed as offensive by many people who watched. They also asserted that this offense became widespread across social media platforms. After querying several social media platforms, I noticed some related posts and trends. However, the actual assertions about how the games began is not something I can confirm. In this post, I look at the marketing angle from the viewer only with the assumption that the viewers are correct in their assertions.

"It Was Extremely Offensive!"

For about a week, all my friends could talk about involved the beginning of the worldwide games called Olympics. They were extremely disgusted and offended with the beginning. In their offense and anger, they ranted as much as they could. They even took their offense online and posted as much as they could about it.

Ironically, they continued to watch Olympics. They also kept talking about Olympics. In that week, they marketed Olympics more than it could have marketed in any other way. In fact, the funniest story involved one of my friends who said that he would "never" watch Olympics again. Two days later, he was expressing anger about a certain fighter in Olympics. When I pointed out, "I thought you were done with it?" he came up with an excuse.

This allegedly involved nations. For instance, according to the X account BRICS Info, an Iranian leader allegedly condemned the beginning of Olympics. Based on a Perplexity search, Iran is participating in Olympics (6 games).

Silence Is the Only Form of Hatred

Before I continue highlighting a key lesson about marketing here, let me disclose that the only way to show true contempt is silence. Any attention - positive or negative - is a reward. While I have never worked with any sports, I would communicate that Olympics won and hardened their victory from all the attention.

If you want to see a related example of this, look no further than mainstream media. People disparage and attack "mainstream" news regularly. Yet these same people constantly share content from mainstream media. If they actually disliked mainstream news, they would never share it. The same applies to Olympics. They saw a big increase in viewers and attention even as the same people were attacking Olympics.

People React To What Has Value

Let's assume the beginning was offensive and that people who claim this are correct. People only react to what has value. Imagine a homeless guy that you walk by screams to you, "You suck!" It won't affect you because he has no value in your mind. Now imagine that your boss says, "You suck!" He has value because he can fire you. If he believes that you suck, then you may be at risk for losing a job. Let me repeat: people only react to what has value

Olympics has perceived value because people reacted to it. If people ignored it or felt indifferent to it, most people would come to the opposite conclusion. But people reacted to Olympics along with spreading information about it, even if it was negative. Make no mistake that people can feel anger about something, but still make it popular. Most emotions are fake, or at best, temporary. People can feel anger. But emotions ebb; it's hard to sustain that emotional state forever. That same state that leads to anger can also lead to other states. This is one reason that I tell marketers the unpopular truth of emotions: when people feel absolutely nothing, they are less likely to act on this. An extreme feeling - good or bad - causes some type of action. Olympics hangs an example of this like a picture on a wall. Imagine a boring Olympics ceremony. In fact, there have been plenty. No one looks at the picture. Now, imagine an interesting or controversial ceremony. Everyone looks at it and shares it from a broad ranges of emotions.

From a marketing perspective the way to view this is ask the simple question: what are people actually doing? They're watching Olympics! Even if the angry people are not, because they keep talking about it, they are helping market the content to other people who don't feel anger. This means Olympics stiffens their victory either way - people either watch it or through sharing their anger, encourage others to watch it.

When You Misunderstand Your Market

A few years ago, a friend of mine created a local business that served tourists. He lived in a city that attracted countless tourists. He had thought that tourists looked for key details about areas in the city. He solved the problem better than anyone did. His short videos covered details that could make an average vacation exceptional. In one minute of content, a person could find exactly what they were looking for plus they would get the best recommendations of the city. However, he attracted very little attention relative to his competitors.

He asked me why his marketing wasn't working when we talked. When we compared his content with others, I showed him his problem. No one was watching the tourist videos because they wanted to know key details about his area. That was a "guise" to hide what they actually wanted. They were watching information because they wanted to feel attraction toward the "hot girl" tour guides (or for straight women, they wanted to feel envy). He had mis-assumed that his target audience wanted detailed information about the best locations. They didn't. He couldn't provide his audience with feelings of attraction or envy. However, people don't like to admit they're susceptible to emotions, so they could use the cover of "I watch this hot girl tour guide because I want to know the best spots in Lala Land."

The audience of Olympics is the same this year. I have heard almost nothing about any game. This is peculiar because Olympics supposedly involve games. I have heard a ton of completely non-related observations about Olympics. Many of these observations involve anger. People are mad because of one reason or another. They share this with everyone they know. They appear justified for the reason they state. But if you zoom out carefully, you'll observe that these people tend to be angry. This is their latest reason to be angry. While they don't realize it, anger is addictive. This is also why Olympics are getting record level ratings: they are sending everyone into an emotional frenzy.

Final Thoughts

Keep in mind that I am saying nothing about the ethics of doing this here. Sending people into high emotional states could be viewed as unethical. I would agree with this. But I would also agree that audiences are responsible for when they're reactive. Why aren't people evaluating what they're actually doing? Everyone can do this. In a nutshell, if you're simply looking for attention - like most marketers, getting people to feel an emotion is the best path. All negative and positive emotions are addicting (by contrast, indifference and boredom are not).

Later Update

I've updated this post because after I wrote this post, an indictment from the US Department of Justice happened that highlights part of my point here.

Allegedly, according to the US Department of Justice, a non-US country funded the operations of Tenet Media, run by Lauren Chen. This led to an indictment.

Lauren Chen is exactly who you'd expect. She doesn't add a single new thought to any conversation. Yet young men love her! Why? It's what we all know. Most young men are conservatives and they feel attraction toward Lauren Chen. "Conservative content" is the cover. Feeling attraction is the "actual" of the situation. Never forget young men: no matter how pretty you think a girl is, she still farts.

Allegedly from a video people claim from her (now) removed channel, she actually thinks that women shouldn't have the right to vote. Assuming this video was actually her and not a deepfake, stop and think about this. If her followers are correct, then why did they ever listen to her? If they actually agree with Chen that women shouldn't have the right to vote, why listen to her at all? That is obviously trolling - "Hey, people like me shouldn't have the right to vote, do you agree?" Then why should I listen to you?

This is exactly the same person who complains about what they're watching. Why don't they stop watching then? Consider how many people complained about Olympics, yet watched it! The only thing you learn from these people is how deluded they are.

Mark my words, the Lauren Chen allegations are a tip of an iceberg. It's deeper than most readers realize. You'll learn over time. However, what you can do for yourself today is weigh if someone is being consistent. Based on what her followers claim, Lauren Chen was inconsistent. And no one is being consistent with Olympics.

Why Mene Jewelry Fails In Basic Marketing

This communication serves as a disclosure that the following information is solely focused on the marketing aspects of companies mentioned, without considering any other relevant factors that may affect its value or suitability for investment. By providing this information, we are not making any recommendations, endorsements, or guarantees regarding the financial product. It is crucial that you conduct your own thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. In addition, everyone - including you the reader - should only invest with money that you're willing to lose as losses are guaranteed in life (we all die).

I hold an immense amount of respect for Roy Sebag (the Executive Chairman of Mene and CEO Goldmoney). He speaks and acts with a deep understanding of how the world works. In addition, both companies that he's involved - Mene and Goldmoney - highly respect and value their customers. Mene, as an example, provides perfect transparency for how much the buyer is paying Mene. You will find very few companies that operate with as much respect for the customer as these companies. From a point of integrity with other businesses and customers, there are very few people who have the integrity of Roy Sebag. If you get a chance to meet him, I highly recommend doing so as you'll seldom meet people in business who value their customers like him.

Unfortunately, Mene as a company does an extremely poor job for shareholders. If you had owned Mene's stock and dollar cost averaged into it for the first few early years, you would have had an abysmal performance. One reason involves marketing. While the company has solid integrity for customers, the company misunderstands their market and has been everything but exceptional for shareholders.

Note that Yahoo Finance lists Mene jewelry stock data as dating back to 2014. Yet Mene was founded in 2017 and publicly listed in November 2018. Yahoo's data is suspect and I would be careful about using it as a tool to analyze Mene. My stock analysis here involved looking at Yahoo's listed price of Mene in November 6th, 2018 ($0.5721) that had volume listed and Mene's price at the time of this post being written ($0.11). Note that this post was published later than when I wrote it. If you use the exact date of November 1rst, 2018 from Yahoo Finance, the price of Mene would have been 0.0933 with no volume on that date.

What Is Mene Jewelry?

In a sentence, Mene jewelry sells 24 karat gold and platinum jewelry. To add a little detail, they are one of the few jewelry companies that tells the customer the exact weight of the metal a customer buys along with the exact amount of fee that the customer pays to Mene. For instance, at the time of this post, this is what Mene's site shares if you click the "i" icon by the Mene fee:

MENE PRICE TRANSPARENCY Mene transparently prices, sells, and buys-back our pure 24 karat jewelry by gram weight based on the official precious metal values. Our innovative technology allows customers to make well-informed decisions by understanding and tracking the value of their jewelry at the time of purchase or in the future. Weight The weight (measured in metric grams) represents the pure 24 karat gold or platinum content within each design.* Fluctuating Precious Metal Value Mene jewelry prices fluctuate based on the market price for gold and platinum.** Mene Fee The fee which Mene earns on each piece sold which is approximately 30% of the total value of each item. This fee includes all design, manufacturing, shipping, and insurance costs. * Weights can fluctuate by up to 0.5 Grams per each design. ** Our precious metal values are based on the international bullion markets for gold and platinum.

This is extremely rare to see from any jewelry merchant. For one, most jewelry is not 24 karat gold; in the West, it's usually 14 karat. You can find 24 or 22 karat gold in India or Dubai, but outside those two places, it becomes hard to find. In addition, you rarely know the weight of the total metal you're purchasing. If we look at a company Mene compares itself to (Pandora), they list products in a different way. If were dig into a Pandora product (in this case, a ring), under "Product Details" we see something fascinating:

Give a gift from the heart with this gorgeous openwork ring, the perfect way to express your love. Exquisitely crafted in sterling silver, this delicate style features a band of hand-finished hearts and delicate bead detailing. The romantic design looks equally beautiful worn on its own or layered with contrasting Pandora rings. Collection: Pandora Moments Stone: No stone Colour: No color Themes: Love Product Type: Rings Item: 190980 Metal: Sterling silver Material: No Other Material Dimensions: Depth: 1.3 mm, Height: 3.4 mm, Width: 3.3 mm

We have no idea the concentration of the metal, the amount or underlying value! Pandora is extremely vague about this product, though at the time that I looked, I received a pop-up that said it was very popular.

Look again at the description. What is it even saying? Look at all the nonsense in the description that means nothing:

Give a gift from the heart [the heart doesn't give gifts] with this gorgeous openwork [?] ring, the perfect way to express your love [actually, this depends on the person and is unlikely to ever be perfect]. Exquisitely crafted [according to whom?] in sterling silver, this delicate style features a band of hand-finished hearts [what does hand-finished actually mean here?] and delicate bead detailing [oooooh, but meaningless]. The romantic design [according to whom again?] looks equally beautiful worn on its own or layered with contrasting Pandora rings [CROSS-SELL gimick!].

While I poke fun here, Pandora does an exceptional job here. They show an excellent product description because good marketing is often fluff. That is A+ fluff. Plus their cross-sell is extremely brilliant because this will work well with some customers who want jewelry to look cute and match (their target demographic).

Why Am I Fascinated By Mene?

After several successful ventures and marketing campaigns that involved solving customer problems from 2012 to 2015, I decided to address the complaints I kept hearing about inaccurate media. In late 2016, a close friend and I started a media company. We differed from mainstream media because we only wrote what we understood and we expressed skepticism where we could tell incentives were misaligned. In a sentence, we were transparent. In early 2019, we closed our media company because we never made profit and we got little attention, even though we provided accurate information.

In fact, at one point I wrote an article cautioning traders and investors about a hyped crypto product ("Zcash") that was getting significant mainstream media attention because it used a supply shock in its beginning. I warned these investors and traders that the crypto product would crash. It did. In fact, the crypto product crashed over 99% in value (from over $5,000 at the time I wrote the article to $35 in less than a year). The reason I knew it was being hyped is that the mainstream media admitted that they had a financial incentive in the instrument doing well. They wrote glowing articles about the product. To this day, the hyped financial product has never come close to the $5,000+ price, nor has it been able to even rise above $1K, according to CMC.

(Cleverly the mainstream media removed their glowing intial articles about this hyped crypto product. That's good marketing. But it is the opposite of honesty and transparency. While people will complain about media who do this, they will continue to read and visit those sites. What is said? What is done? Note this.)

What my friend and I learned is that people say they value transparency in media, but do not act or reward this value. In other words people don't actually respect someone who's honest in their actions. In a sense, the crypto product successfully used marketing to hype their product and as I predicted, they would never see that high price again. People don't value and will never value the truth in their actions because the truth is both boring and involves reflection. There's no "urgency" or "rush" to truth. Likewise, there's no fantasy. One thing I learned in writing about financial topics on our site was that most people invest due to fantasy, not reality. People bought crypto products because it helped them imagine a fantasy life they would live. When the products crashed 99%, they moved onto the next fantasy they never achieved. No one wanted to actually know whether an idea had value or not. People will say the opposite, but this is not true.

When I contrasted this with some of my other product ideas that had worked, I realized that transparency is not a universal value. For an example, in the survivalist industry where I've done exceptionally well, people value and act on transparency. But energy drinks differ; my success with energy drinks was more about demographics and positioning with contrast marketing. Energy drink customers don't reward transparency, but they don't punish it either. You can be very transparent with your energy drink brand, but it won't add to your sales. By contrast, media customers punish transparent media. The more honest and accurate, the less likely you'll have readers.

When I originally heard about Mene, I recognized the business strategy: transparency as a marketing technique. Mene is attempting to do this in jewelry. Both jewelry and media have widespread dishonesty in the sense that jewelers don't want you to actually know the value of what you're buying. You'll seldom meet a jeweler who tells you the details of what you're buying. Mene is different. They tell you all the details. I've kept my eye on Mene because I theorize that the target demographic of jewelry doesn't actually value transparency regardless of what they say.

Believe What the Numbers Tell You

Mene has listed their IFRS adjusted revenue for as many years as I've been keeping my eye on them and the numbers paint the exact picture when we look at the first quarter of the year:

• IFRS adjusted revenue 2021: $7.2 million
• IFRS adjusted revenue 2022: $7.3 million
• IFRS adjusted revenue 2023: $7.1 million
• IFRS adjusted revenue 2024: $4.8 million

Because I heard about Mene around 2018, I had saved some old financial numbers from their old Non-IFRS numbers dating back to 2020:

• Non-IFRS Quarter 1, 2020: $5.6 million
• Non-IFRS Quarter 1, 2021: $8.3 million
• Non-IFRS Quarter 1, 2022: $9.3 million

I choose the quarter where we could compare numbers this year. It's worth noting that per Mene's latest data along with data I've collected on them, quarter 1 is generally their 2nd best quarter of the year (behind quarter 4).

One important point to note is that because Mene sells 24 karat gold and jewelry, we can also evaluate these numbers with the performance of the metals themselves. We may expect that as gold or platinum rises, we'd see some fall in the amount of demand, as the jewelry by weight is more expensive. How would the price be affected? That depends on how we look at the overall picture. What we do know in looking at this first quarter, is that gold has risen in price and the actual dollar amount of jewelry dropped from $7.1 million (1rst quarter 2023) to $4.8 million (1rst quarter 2024). Note that the average price of gold in the first quarter of 2023 versus 2024 was $1,875 versus $1,920 and these numbers reflect the Western price.

I start with the numbers here because the numbers tell the exact story of what is going on with the company. These are terrible numbers. Comparing Mene with Pandora, Pandora is up over 3 multiples in the past 5 years and pays a dividend. Pandora is crushing Mene. Yet Pandora is far less transparent and more expensive when you make weight-by-weight and fee measurements. Why?

Target Demographic

The biggest miss with Mene involves demographics. First, Mene attempts to sell to the West. This is a big mistake, as the West values 24 karat jewelry far less than people in the East (India, Dubai, China). I've had conversations with people in the West about 24 karat jewelry that literally had pushback like, "24 karat gold is too weak for jewelry and I'd be willing to pay much more for 14 karat jewelry." They admit that they would pay more money for less gold because of "strength" - something that is less important with platinum rings. We could say that some of this is misunderstandings about 24 karat gold or platinum jewelry, as I've held a 24 karat gold ring and it held its weight. However the counterpoint here is that a person doesn't know this unless they can see and feel this. Pandora has physical locations. Mene does not. Mene is trying to sell jewelry that some of its possible customers might value, but without a physical presence, these customers can't feel test the product.

Second Mene misses with their biggest possible customer: females. Females are much more likely to wear jewelry than men and even with Millennial's low marriage rate, Millennial females have still purchased jewelry in large volumes. Unfortunately for Mene, they don't attract as many females as a company like Pandora. Compare how the product is marketed. Pandora makes the product feel special. Mene makes the product feel like it has value. Mene also makes the purchase feel logical whereas Pandora makes the purchase feel like an experience - this can be better done in a store too.

Third, Mene miscommunicates its product to its ideal demographic: it angles its jewelry as "investment" jewelry and you can track the performance of what you bought. This is what I call "stupid marketing" - this completely misunderstands jewelry buyers. You will never hear a jewelry buyer say, "God, I wish I had a dashboard to see the performance of my jewelry. I would just love to see a graph of how my jewelry has appreciated over time." It's laughably stupid because most of us know that jewelry buyers like how jewelry looks, not that it appreciates in value. For those unfamiliar with stupid marketing, this is when a company tries to solve a non-existent problem.

In reality, jewelry buyers value the jewelry arbitrarily whether the jewelry represents a memory, matches an outfit, looks cute, or physically declares that someone (or something) has value (like a proposal with an engagement ring). You can chuckle at what I wrote, but this represents the majority of jewelry buyers. None of these are measureable by any graph. Turning a jewelry purchase into a trackable investments diminishes the experience and comes off as very "surveillance-ish" which doesn't feel great. Mene's tracking of your jewelry performance comes off as borderline creepy. Because Mene sells 24 karat jewelry, it's possible that they have to comply with AML and KYC laws and this is exactly how the experience feels. But it significantly diminishes the product and experience.

Customers Do NOT Always Reward Transparency

Most customers do not reward transparency, even if they claim that they value it. When I showed my female friends Mene, they liked what they saw, yet none of them purchased their products (these specific women were regular buyers of jewlery from Pandora and other mainstream merchants). None of them could say why they wouldn't do business with Mene versus a company like Pandora, but when I compared a ring on Mene with a ring on Pandora, it became clearer why. Pandora spends their entire page for a product selling them on the product. Mene makes it "feel" like a value transaction, which feels very logical and business-oriented. It doesn't feel special at all; it feels logical. Are there people who buy jewelry for logical reasons? Yes, but as we see, this market spends far less money than the market which buys jewelry because it feels special.

People say many things, but you'll observe that they don't act on what they say. This is classic human behavior. Pandora versus Mene is a great example of this. Get into any logical conversation about jewelry and most people will tell you that most jewelry is overpriced. Show them a product that has fair value and is not overpriced relative to its peers. They will verbally like it. They will agree it has value. They will even tell you that they're thinking of buying the product. They later buy a Pandora product. Why? Because a person's values about jewelry are much more arbitrary than what they want to admit. I love to caution marketers: no one wants say "I'm completely illogical in my shopping" yet very few people are logical.

Are there times where customers reward transparency? Yes and jewelry is not one of them.

Status Symbols vs. Needed Products

When a customer needs a product, they can make an entirely different decision than when a product is a status symbol. A status symbol is not needed and is often about showing off. If a customer has a significant amount of money and can kill two birds with one stone (both a status symbol and a need), they'll do this.

My favorite example of this is brown eggs versus white eggs. An egg is an egg. In cost, a brown egg is twice as expensive as a white egg. An egg is not an egg to the person who wants to boast. This person will buy the brown egg over the white egg to show off. He'll even pretend that a brown egg tastes better, when you could blindfold him and run a test and he wouldn't know. Even though he sounds like a complete idiot as he boasts about his brown eggs, he consistently will act on this. The reason is because the brown egg represents his pretentiousness. He can buy a brown egg instead of a white egg. During 2020 when there was an egg shortage, these people all disappeared. Suddenly they were willing to buy white eggs! Why? Because the shortage of eggs exposed their fraud - they were only buying brown eggs to show off, but during a shortage, having ANY EGGS was the sign of status.

Notice though how these people spin their purchase of brown eggs. They verbally say reasons like "taste" or "healthier" yet as we see, this is not their actual value. You could run a taste test. You could even have scientists show that an egg is an egg. What we misunderstand here is that these people are not buying brown eggs for the reason they state. They are buying brown eggs because they want to be pretentious. They won't state this, as it would immediatley expose who they really are, so they have "reasons" that are nonsense.

Jewelry is a status symbol. Pandora's jewelry is part of a collection and is popular. Mene's jewelry has value behind the price that you can measure. This isn't quite the same as the egg analogy, as eggs are exactly the same except color whereas these jewelers have fundamentally different products. But people buying for status symbols want an "empty" product that shows off their status. They don't want a value product because that indicates need or analysis.

Smart people really struggle here and I empathize with them because it's counterintuitive. However, when you struggle to understand why, think of brown and white eggs. People literally pay twice the price for the exact same product because it allows them to pretend as if they're more sophisticated. Jewelry targets these people and this is why Mene misses.

Customer Value vs. Shareholder Value

Mene, like Goldmoney, serves its customers well. I respect that. Customers who want to do business with a company that values them will prefer Mene over Pandora. However, Pandora serves its shareholders much better than Mene. At the end of the day, serving customers doesn't always equate to strong performance for shareholders. Sometimes it does, but in this case, it does not.

Look at the marketing material for shareholders of Pandora versus Mene. Who is more transparent and upfront? Does Mene talk about how poor of a job they've done for their shareholders? No. This is fascinating because the way that Mene markets itself to its shareholders is different than how it markets its products to its customers. I challenge Mene to show the entire performance of its stock since inception on its marketing material to its shareholders. That would be transparent!

I came to a similar conclusion with the media site I co-founded. "People want to know what they want to know. That's why they read media." In other words, people aren't watching the news to learn. They're watching the news to be told they're right or to get excited about something, even if it's terrible. Once I realized that, I recognized that there will never be money in transparent and honest communication. This differs a bit from Mene here, in that they are transparent with their customer, but could improve their transparency with their shareholders.

Related: Goldmoney

Before I wrap up with my final thoughts, let's look at a company run by Roy Sebag, the co-founder of Mene. According to Yahoo and Google Finance, Goldmoney went public in May of 2015. Goldmoney has been a public company for almost ten years. How well has it done since it went public?

According to this shareholder letter )Goldmoney went public on May 13th, 2015. In looking at both Google and Yahoo finance, I could find this original data for two different securities - XAUMF (US OTC market) and XAU.TO (Toronto). Google Finance shows $22.32 was the original price for XAUMF. The price is much lower now according to Google Finance. Yahoo Finance shows the adjusted close price for XAU.TO of 13.19 on May 13th, 2015 (Yahoo Finance uses the adjusted close price account for splits/dividend changes). The latest XAU.TO adjusted close price at the time of this post is near $7. In other words, both Google and Yahoo Finance agree that Goldmoney has a lower price now than when it went public.

What we find throughout Goldmoney's materials to shareholders is marketing, marketing, marketing. I don't see much discussion about how poorly they've performed in the past 9 years, but maybe I missed it in their letter. I see this quite frequently with companies like this "We're building long term value." Guess what? Nine years IS LONG TERM and yet what does Goldmoney have to show for these 9 years? As of this writing, Mene seems to be a copy of this only with jewelry. They treat their customers well, but how do you think their shareholders feel? In a similar manner, they appear selectively transparent with their shareholders.

Final Thoughts

I like the jewelry industry - and as we see some jewelers have done well for shareholders. Mene is not one of these. While Mene has some smart leaders, they provide a good example of being too smart for their own good. They treat their customer well. But any long time shareholder will have a very different view of the company.

UPDATED. I've updated this post to note that anyone who considers Mene or any other related company should consider these points related to marketing. Being transparent with customers is good. I would suggest Mene do the same across the board with shareholders by highlighting Mene's full historic performance along with why they've struggled to generate results over time for shareholders. After a company performs as poorly as Mene over time, one way to rebuild trust is to regularly provide income to investors to show that you can generate profit. However, as some readers may understand, you cannot do this if you're actually an unprofitable enterprise. Ironically, I find companies that have elitist leaders who emphasize value ironic because they seldom acheive any value at all because they misunderstand basic human nature.

Also, consider this point on how transparent Mene is with shareholders: this site alleges that Mene has been diluting shares. Per TradingView for MENEF:

• In 2020 there were ‪‪244,290,000 shares
• In 2021 there were ‪‪253,940,000 shares
• In 2022 there were ‪‪258,630,000 shares
• In 2023 there were ‪‪259,770,000 shares
• Now there are ‪‪259,830,913 shares (now is based on this saved link)

This is something to keep an eye on, as I didn't see any transparency of this in Mene's recent presentation for investors. Is TradingView incorrect here, is this something that doesn't get highlighted on investor information, or is there something else happening?

Mark the Plumber On Success, Work and Early Retirement

The responses to the interview questions may not represent the views of The Echo Boom Bomb's author. These interviews are provided to inform readers of information from experts and provide these experts with a medium where they can answer questions without any content changes. All linked material to products in interviews such as books or videos are affiliated with the supported platforms, such as Amazon or others. To see the full list of interviews related to Echo Boomers, iGenZ or Automons, see the ending acknowledgements on this post.

Background

A few years ago, I visited a store to search for a pluming solution. I ran into Mark, who became an instant friend and we've stayed connected since then. Mark had already retired from being a plumber and is one of the few Millennials I ever met who dropped out of high school. One big difference with Mark that I shared with him was that he had much lower self-esteem than the average Millennial (a generation who were raised to think they were special). This actually worked to his advantage as you'll read and he and I both agree that his story shows that high self-esteem has little to do with success. Mark is a great guy, but he's not on social media because he doesn't think his life is that interesting to be on it. I love the self-honesty!

Had To Ask...

While many Millennials piled into college (about 40-45%), you dropped out of high school during your freshman year and became a plumber. When we first met, your story differed significantly from many Millennials. What made you decide to drop out of high school and become a plumber?

I'm the dumber kid of my family. My brothers and sisters are much smarter than I am. My mom made sure that I knew this growing up. She used to tell me all the time that I wasn't going to add up to much because I learned really slow. I would read for five minutes and get bored and I really struggled with memorization. I could repeat something a hundred times and still not remember it. Some of it is that my mom is right and I am kind of slow when it comes to information. Some of it is also I hate learning stuff I don't use. I still don't know why I had to learn how to diagram a sentence. I have never used that and will never use that. I almost feel like school was killing time.

Before my freshman year, my friend's dad was a plumber and ran his own business. I wanted to learn so I asked if he could teach me and I'd be willing to do whatever. He was more than willing to teach me and he even started paying me for helping with his projects. My freshman year of high school continued to bore me so I had to decide between continuing to learn things I didn't want to know or make money that I could use. I saw immediate use for the money I was making, but I still don't know why I had to learn all the nonsense in school. So I dropped out. At the time, my mom used it as proof that I would never make it in life. She even told me that I would eventually realize that I had made the wrong choice. I didn't care because school was so boring and to this day, I don't regret it because I don't see how people who went to finished high school and went to college made a better choice than I did.

We've overvalued education to a point that it's become oversaturated and pointless. Historically, many kids would have been done with education at 12 and started working. Once you dropped out of high school, how were you able to manage working while your mom didn't approve?

I kind of lucked out the first year because my mom enjoyed telling me I was dumb and it stopped there. Since my friend's dad lived in our neighborhood, I worked as much as I could. I managed to make a good amount of money my first year but the real success was the experience I gained. I tried learning everything I could and it paid off big. By the end of my first year, I was able to take on challenging commercial projects - those are where we make good money. He would show me how he worked on a problem and I would jump on it. I kept feeling like the more I could do, the more I could make.

That's when my mom tried getting in the way and stopping me from continuing. Looking back, it's clear to me that she got angry when I started to out-earn her plus some of her friends were making comments about her having a high school dropout. She didn't like that and she tried to force me to go back to school. I was going to return to school and the situation got really bad. At one point, she physically attacked me to where it became noticeable to everyone. At least my mom realized that she crossed a line, but my friend's dad stepped in at that point and I was able to live with him. I planned to move out as soon as I could, but he was great because he told me that it made more sense to live with them until I was ready to be on my own. That allowed me to save a lot of money. To this day, I am grateful to him because he is the biggest reason for my success and he thinks I've alwasy been an amazing worker.

Mentors are key. Plus, you were able to work when Millennials were in high school and then some Millennials went to college. They were delaying pay while you were earning it. How were you able to eventually go into business for yourself?

I worked under my dad's friend for about seven years and would take on as many project as possible. He paid me extremely well, but we had very few plumbers in our area and few wanted to become a plumber, so the abundance of work allowed him to retire early. He wanted more freedom to travel, so his final year, he taught me more about the business, marketing and tax side of things. In thinking about it now, it's funny how I learned all this information about managing money for taxes, inventory and other related expenses, but we never discussed this stuff in school. It's so weird. What do people even do with all the stuff they learn in school? I still don't know. Like, when am I going to diagram a sentence as an adult?

After that, I was one of the few plumbers in the area and the demand was crazy. There was more projects than I had time. I tried hiring others, but what a nightmare! You and I have talked about this, but Millennials have no work ethic. They would get hired, work the first day, then call in sick and I wouldn't hear from them after a week. It was crazy. What's odd is that many of them would end up working a job that paid less, but it was some desk job. I do not understand someone who wants to get paid to sit around.

I struggled with hiring people for a while and finally gave up and am glad I did. I had to be honest with myself about how much work I could do and would do because I know I wasn't going to have help. I set higher prices and started making money good money plus was able to eliminate the projects that couldn't pay as much as I wanted. I retired before I turned 29, but even now I take some projects that I either enjoy or pay a rate that I'm willing to work. The difference is that instead of working 70-80 hour work weeks, I work about 10 hours a week overall.

That's the part about your story that stuns our Millennial friends the most. They can't believe someone can retire at 29 without being a trust fund kid. I like to point out our friends that about a decade ago, I was speaking at a financial event and I asked the bankers in the room how many of them would be proud if their sons became plumbers or electricians. No one in the audience raised their hand. Yet all of them had used running water and electricity that day! Our generation (and iGenZ too), does not have any concept of what we're actually demanding daily versus what we're saying has value. This is the result - a job that's in a shortage even with high wages.

But you still have people who won't do the work even with high wages. I hired people who quit working and would go work for some other easier job making half the wages. It's like they prefer easy work even if the easy work doesn't pay much. I'll never forget this one guy I hired. He picked up what I taught him pretty quickly. But after a month, he didn't want to do the work anymore and he didn't show up or even call and say that he quit. I ran into him later and he told me he worked doing some security job where he'd sit at a desk all day. He made less than half what I was paying him, but he told me that his job was easier even when I asked him if he would want to come back and work. Most people didn't want to do the work and I discovered that I hated managing people.

What made me finally stop is I had a friend who was also struggling to hire people and one guy claimed that he was injured on the job and sued. That scared me because he had to go to court over the situation. Hiring people is a job in and of itself and I just didn't have time to do that plus balance work.

I'm lucky because when everyone needs a plumber and there aren't many plumbers, I could simply say no. In hindsight, that was a big part of how I was able to charge high prices and retire early. Even now, I can select the projects I want because there's still a shortage! Plus, I've worked with many people over the years who really value my work and know that I'll do well. Credibility is a big factor in plumbing.

Working in the right field was a big factor in your financial success. Saving money also sounds like it played a huge role in your financial success. What are some other things that played a role in your success?

When you work a lot, you save a lot because you don't have time to spend. Kind of the opposite of our friends who spent a year traveling and spent six figures doing so. I know they had fun, but now they feel like it set them back. I didn't have options like that because I had to work. I have been blessed with some great friends who pointed me to Dave Ramsey, so I was able to invest following his advice. At some point, you have to grow your wealth and I had enough saved early. Working many hours stops a lot of stupid financial decisions so that probably played the biggest role.

Now that I'm older, I think being single also did some as well. Plumbing is a mostly male profession and as I've met other plumbers, I've seen some nasty divorces. My friend's dad ended up going through one himself. To be honest with you, at one point I wanted to marry but I'm glad I never did. Many of my friends who didn't go to college are either divorced or their wives don't respect them at all. Maybe this bugs me because my mom always thought I was dumb, but I don't enjoy being around people who don't respect me as a person. Even when I've dated girls in the past, they would ask me what I really wanted to do, as if there was something wrong with plumbing. Or I've had girls who asked me if I would go back to school almost like they were saying there's something wrong with not graduating high school.

Women are generally more concerned with other people's perception than men. Add to that what Saint Paul says, "Knowledge puffeth up" so you get a person who thinks highly of themself and cares about other people's perceptions. Given that most Millennial women are highly educated, that's a very common combination.

All of my teachers in high school and junior high were all women and I don't think any of them thought I was very smart. I can remember a few who agreed with my mom in that they thought I was dumb. I don't think I was ever cut out for education because I'm a D or F student at best. I remember one teacher asking me that, "Do you want to be a D student the rest of your life?" But I also don't get what we were even learning most of the time or why I would care. Women seem to enjoy that more too, like all the girls in my class would answer the questions while I was wondering why did anyone care. Trivia bores the heck out of me.

It may be because I work with a lot of men that I don't really value or need to know things I don't need to know, if that makes sense. I can't think of any conversation I've had with other men in my work where random trivia came up. No offense to the men who are educated, but they're the only ones I know who sit around and talk about this stuff. I don't need to know that you can manufacture and ship good easier by the Rhine River than by wherever because I don't work in manufacturing and I don't plan to. It's not important. Men seem to only say what's necessary when I'm working whereas women share lots of details about whatever the situation is.

You highlight a big problem with modern education that's impacting male enrollments in education - too many women. That's part of why education has lost men and I've been warning institutions about this for a while. Men don't see male teachers and assume education isn't for them. Regardless, right now the blue collar world is great for men plus it's in high demand. Like you said, no one wants to do physical work anymore so you have little competition. What advice would you suggest for young men interested in blue collar fields?

Honestly, be willing to do the work. That's rare. There's probably a lot of people willing to show you how to do the work, but it's a waste of time to invest in someone who quits after a week or two. I have a lot of respect for people who hire people, but I would never go back to that. I hated it. I did work recently with a young man, but the big reason was that I didn't need to teach him much, I could just tell him what needed to be done and he would do it. That and he was the son of the business owner. Like I said about my friend's lawsuit, I wouldn't hire people because of all the legal stuff. Lawsuits are no joke.

Be enthusiastic about learning new things related to the job. It's so easy to each people something when they're excited about it. My friend's dad told me early on that I was extremely easy to teach because I wanted to learn. For me, I felt like plumbing was my only path to a good life so I had to learn it. I didn't have options. My brothers and sisters are much smarter than I am and have many options to succeed. I didn't! But now that I think about it, if you want to learn and show enthusiasm, you become easy to teach.

And you're still not on social media, so people can't find you anywhere?

You have to think your life is interesting to be on social media. I honestly don't get that stuff. I'm not a smart guy so anything I have to say or show isn't that interesting. Plus you know this - I'm a flesh-and-blood guy. All of you with your Facebook friends, not for me. People have to be present with me and can't take shortcuts if they want to hang out.

If you ever join, I'll be sure to add your information here.

Review

Quick Acknowledgement

A quick thank you to all the people I've spoken to over the past two decades - from the Silent Generation all the way to the AutoMons. It has been an absolute pleasure to meet everyone and hear your life story. I share more details on this thanks in the ending part of this post.

Terminology

Echo Boomer/Millennial/Generation Y 1981 - 1995. The term "echo boom" comes from the demographic observation that Echo Boomers are a massive generation in size, while Generation Y is the title because Echo Boomers follow Generation X. I generally tend to use Echo Boomer as the noun, Millennial as the adjective, and Generation Y as the title when talking about Echo Boomers - these individuals are all the same in terms of people born between 1981 and 1995 (you will see that I sometimes include 1980 in my posts). Unfortunately, I do not always do this consistently, so you will sometimes see Millennials as a noun. However, they are all the same.

iGenZ/Generation Z 1996 - 2010. This is the internet generation that follows Echo Boomers. As a generation they only know of a world with the internet. I call this generation iGenZ for this reason (shortened version of Internet Generation Z). I generally tend to use iGenZ as the noun and Generation Z as the title for this generation - these individuals are all the same in terms of people being born between 1996 and 2010. I do not share most of my research publicly on this generation as my predictions with Echo Boomers were extremely successful and I am replicating that success with iGenZ privately. Unlike Echo Boomers, my research with iGenZ has been global, mostly with Asian iGenZ.

AutoMons/Generation Alpha/Generation A 2011 - 2025. I refer to this generation as AutoMons (The Automation Monoculture Generation), as they were born in a world where significant automation will be the norm - 3d printing, artificial intelligence, etc. They also show early signs of shifting toward social monoculture, which is where I get the Mons in AutoMons.

Prediction: Education Bubble and Regret

I predicted that at least 25% of Echo Boomers would regret attending college and cautioned that Echo Boomers' stories about attending college might someday mirror what we heard during the housing bubble. At the time of this prediction, former Generations such as the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers and Generation X had less than 5% of their generational members regret attending college, so I had a lot of people argue that I was predicting a big shift. However, as of my research over the years of 2021 and 2022, 37% of Echo Boomers have told me that they regretted attending college. Let me repeat a point I made which we are now seeing:

The perception of education changes. Echo Boomers were inculcated with "get a degree" messages from everywhere. As Echo Boomers mature and make less money than they expected, they will communicate their disappointment with education to the next generation. Unless Echo Boomers look back on education with rose color glasses, the next generation will hold a different outlook on education than their parents.

In addition to the 37% of Echo Boomers who regret attending college, I found that almost one-third (33%) of Echo Boomers report being underemployed with a degree. Undermployment in this context either means they have a degree and no job or they have a degree but are only finding part time or internship work. On a related point here, the only educational path that is not in an education bubble (still!) is medicine.

Humorous Prediction: The Education Bubble Popped First

I write this tongue-and-cheek: my humorous prediction about the education bubble popping first is true. In addition to a decline in college enrollments, universities are closing in the United States at a pace of one a week. Tattoos are still popular, though one of the fastest growing industries by percent is tattoo removals. The tattoo bubble hasn't popped yet, but it's coming.

Prediction: Healthcare

In the post Med School Blows Past the Education Bubble I remarked that medical school would blow past most college degrees since medical school was in a shortage and other degrees were not. This has held correct and in fact, medical wages have significantly outpaced other industries. Some doctors are now making more money than CEOs of medium to large sized companies - it's almost insane to see these wages until you realize the shortage in medicine. I also noted in the past that the USA graduates almost as many lawyers as doctors and lawyers keep trying to add complexity to the system, which has only increased costs. Finally, the anti-male sentiment in the USA has caught up with the country. Hard working young men do not enter medical school, nor want to. College is as anti-male as it comes and young men are wise to avoid American colleges (Chinese, Japanese, Russian, Indian and other colleges in Asia make much better places for young men to attend college).

Not only did my post age well in terms of how much money doctors make, it aged extremely well when you look at life expectancies of Americans: it's plummeting. Americans are dying faster and their healthcare costs are skyrocketing. I did warn you it was coming! Even the American Medical Association is forced to agree with what I cautioned (and note too that they're even talking about the extreme bureaucracy with examples such as "Physicians today, on average, spend about two hours on paperwork for every one hour we spend with patients").

Compared to Generation X, the Millennial generation has a higher suicide rate for both men and women when evaluating age-by-age comparisons of previous generations. As a generation, the data show that US born Echo Boomers will not outlive their parents.

Prediction: Millennial Women Will Make More Money

I predicted that Millennial women would make more money than Millennial men and this has held true as of my recent analysis in 2021. Some quick points on how I compared these differences: identical data points were compared (ie: comparing a female sales manager with 10 years of experience, a bachelor's degree and working in the same area as a male sales manager with 10 years of experience and a bachelor's degree), married Echo Boomers were deducted (see below point), and only data points that exist within a single context - for instance, if a Millennial male worked 3 jobs versus a Millennial female who worked 1, that's not the same context.

Summary of 2021 findings:

• When comparing non-Married Millennial males and females using ceteris paribus factors, Millennial females make approximately 8% more than Millennial males.
• Millennial males are more likely to work multiple jobs, but also more likely to not work at all - the bell curve is very broad when looking at work for Millennial men compared with Millennial females.
• Over 32% of Echo Boomers own a home, most of this group is married/coupled Echo Boomers. In 2011, only 11% of Echo Boomers owned a home.
• The 15% subset of Millennial males have done what I predicted in private discussions with financial executives. Those of you who attended those presentations should continue the suggestions. I do not and will not share pubicly these predictions, as I am continuing to invest in this area.

As a general point on why married Echo Boomers were excluded (and should be): in many married couples, one person will work more while the other may work either less or not at all "officially" - this latter point being important. Consider that a married partner who does not work still can add significant value by extending the value of the income of their partner. For an example, a stay-at-home wife may be able to leverage her husband's income by taking advantage of opportunities and sales that people who work regularly cannot take advantage of, such as buying toilet paper cheaply before the shortage in 2020. It is actually very common for single income households to have a partner who leverages their partner's income; this matters in situations where there is an income tax, as tax authorities cannot take advantage of someone who extends an income by purchasing more value than standard. For this reason, comparing income of married people is unreasonable because we'd also have to evaluate how the other partner is possibly extending that income. That's more difficult to do in research and it outside the scope of my prediction that Millennial women would make more than Millennial men (which they did) when we consider a ceteris paribus context.

Prediction: Millennial Marriage Rate

I predicted that 33-40% of Echo Boomers would never marry. In 2011, only 22% of Echo Boomers had married. As of 2021, only 48% of Echo Boomers were married. Based on 2021's data, I expect that 67-70% of Echo Boomers will marry (higher than initially expected). A big part of this slight upshift is that more Echo Boomers have committed suicide than I expected (and at earlier ages) and their life expectancies are dropping faster than their parents, which will lower the never married population, as never marrieds tend to belong to both of these groups.

As I noted when speaking at events, a low marriage rate would mean the following:

• A shortage of housing, as more single Echo Boomers means there's an increased need for housing, apartments, townhomes, etc.
• Declining individual productivity. An old idiom goes that society is built on the back of married men. This is true, as married men produce significantly more economic output than every other demographic group. A decline in married men means a decline in productive output. Healthcare is a big industry that's seen an absolute collapse in male labor, especially male labor working extra hours (men are much more likely to work more hours).
• Increased and rising crime. Married people commit fewer crimes and are more likely to vote on policies that keep their family safe (anti-criminal policies). In addition, children raised without two parents are statistically more likely to be criminals.

Prediction: The United States Becomes Socialist

While easy to overlook at the time, my prediction that Generation Y's lack of respect for privacy would push them into socialism has aged well. In fact, my exact words were:

As to how this all plays out in the long run, see the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union from history.

In general, socialist societies are built upon the framework mentioned in the post - "value is perceived as a concept determined solely by others." Socialism like it's result (communism) relies on centralization through controlling concepts of value toward the community. Value is determined by the community (others), not the individual. What people consistently miss about capitalism is that both the producer and consumer in a capitalist society determine value as individuals. People often mis-assume that it's only the consumer who does this; they forget that a producers also choose what products they want to create.

People are slowly seeing this now. I find it peculiar (and funny) that these leaders didn't see this developing a decade ago with this generation. This was always inevitable.

Prediction: Products

Electric cars. As I predicted with Tesla, electric cars have been extremely popular with Echo Boomers, especially since Millennial attitudes toward environmentally friendly companies is positive. I expect that this trend will continue and as electric cars become even more affordable, for their use to spread. Echo Boomers have never forgotten the pain they felt at $4 a gallon gas back in 2008 when oil was over $150 West Texas Intermediate. To this day, oil prices have never risen that high even though actual oil resources are declining. The only surprise here is that some of the competitors to Tesla have done poor in their electric car production.

Energy drinks. As I predicted, supplements did well with single male Echo Boomers, especially the more active Echo Boomers. One suggestion I made early given the success with Red Bull was that energy drinks should broaden their appeal to single male Echo Boomers and this has paid off for the ones who followed this. Energy drinks have become a huge market and they've been able to attract many male consumers outside of the fitness industry (Monster Beverage being a great example of one that does this with blue collar male Echo Boomers and Celsius Holdings being a great example of one that does this with white collar male Echo Boomers).

Survivalism takes off in 2024. The survivalist industry has done well since I published that post, though it was very niche. This year, the interest in the industry has absolutely exploded - some of the private startups in the industry are making $1+ million a weekend teaching survivalist skills to the exceptionally wealthy. This isn't only the skills either; the industry has seen an explosion in interest in the actual goods that makeup the industry. This is one of the hottest industries in 2024 that still is flying below the radar.

App Dating. As I've long advised with companies, when appealing to Millennial females, details and the shopping experience matter. The popular dating apps that exploded in popularity followed this advice. The experience felt like shopping for dates and the apps encouraged that users would add key details that single female Echo Boomers wanted to know. Also, I advised some of the companies to track how Millennial females used the apps, such as where they would look and how much time they would spend on certain areas of the app because these are key to improving the shopping experience. While the female Echo Boomers didn't pay as much as the male Echo Boomers, female Echo Boomers were key for dating apps as the male Echo Boomers wouldn't pay for the app if there were no females (gay dating apps being exceptions to this point). Another related appeal to dating apps and why they've been so popular with Echo Boomers is that Echo Boomers prefer self-esteem boosts over money and sex and dating apps provide Echo Boomers with a self-esteem boost, even if they don't act on it.

Acknowledgement

Some specific appreciate to all the people I've interviewed over the years when doing research along with links to the interviews:

• Default Documentary: the Student Loan Interview
• Austrian Economics With Dr. Paul Cwik
• Sander Daniels of Thumbtack
• Susan Walsh of Hooking Up Smart
• Stephanie Coontz on Contemporary Families
• Kay Hymowitz of the Manhattan Institute
• Matt Kramer On Predatory Leadership
• “I Can’t Afford My Private Student Loans”
pot.com/2024/03/mark-plumber-on-success-work-and-early.html" target="_blank">Mark the Plumber: Success, Work and Early Retirement

Also, thank you to those who I interviewed outside the topic of demographics - Dr. Dan Eisenberg, Dr. Catherine Shanahan, Tom Naughton, Dr. Layne Norton, Christine Cronau, and Dr. Lindsey Mathews.

Thank you to all the people I've met over the years, as I've done research. The people I've met and interviewed, the people I've worked with on various studies, even the people in the studies themselves. To me there is nothing more exciting than hearing a person's story - it's more of an adventure than traveling to the coolest places. Thank you for sharing your life with me. I have been extremely careful to avoid ever storing identifiable information and looking only at patterns in a big picture sense because fundamentally I respect what you as an individual are willing to share publicly under your name. The biggest takeaway to any research is how people are the greatest work of art.

Updates

I am currently completing two projects related to Echo Boomers (Millennials), iGenZ and the AutoMon generations. I will be reposting and consolidating some of the old public content from this blog and adding private content that was never published to the public audience, as I make reference to these public and private materials from the past. Expect to see material from the period of 2009 to 2013. I will not be republishing the content unrelated to Echo Boomers (Millenials), iGenZ and the AutoMons. All re-posted public content and added private content will have some written updates over time (removal of irrelevant remarks, more details where needed, grammar fixes, etc). The order will be the following: republish and consolidate material along with publishing some private material, update links, and update or remove media. Some links will not work anymore for a period, as I will not republish irrelevant posts and also some links on other sites are now inactive. As I republish this material, I will add to the below linked list (earliest posts will appear first).

• Who Are the Echo Boomers?
• "No Houses Please. We're Echo Boomers."
• "No Vehicles Please. We're Echo Boomers."
• When Will the Higher Education Bubble Pop?
• (Interview) Default Documentary: the Student Loan Interview
• Products and Services for Single Female Echo Boomers
• Products and Services for Single Male Echo Boomers
• (Interview) Austrian Economics With Dr. Paul Cwik
• Do Echo Boomers Want Money, Sex or Self-Esteem Boosts?
• Tesla Motors' Other Vehicle
• Who Killed the Electric Car? No One.
• (Interview) Sander Daniels of Thumbtack
• (Interview) Susan Walsh of Hooking Up Smart
• What Industries Will Be Winners or Losers With Generation Y?
• Generation Y Fails In Privacy; 3 Reasons Why
• (Interview) Stephanie Coontz on Contemporary Families
• (Interview) Kay Hymowitz of the Manhattan Institute
• Who Is Generation Z?
• (Interview) Matt Kramer On Predatory Leadership
• "Give Us Facebook Or We'll Take A Lower Paying Job!"
• (Interview) “I Can’t Afford My Private Student Loans”
• Dan Eisenberg Discusses Telomere Length and Age
• Med School Blows Past the Education Bubble
• (Interview) Jed Kolko: Millennials and the Real Estate Market
• (Interview) Julie Zeilinger: Challenges Facing Millennial Women
• Millennial Women Will Make More Money
• What Real Estate Do Millennials Want?
• Is There A Bitcoin Bubble?
• Millennials Don't Know What Inflation Is, So ...

Both media and links on republished posts may be dead and will not be updated for a period of time. As I finish republishing a subset of the past posts, I will either remove or update links and media. In addition, I have done a follow-up study on Echo Boomers and will eventually add some of the details of this follow-up study (conducted during 2021 to 2022).

Millennials Don't Know What Inflation Is, So ...

A recent article suggests that Echo Boomers should oppose Janet Yellen if they want to retire. As a quick note, remember that Echo Boomers supported Obama even though his Obamacare would cost Echo Boomers more money than if Obamacare didn't exist. Echo Boomers seldoom act in their best interest. Likewise, Yellen (and Bernanke) is a disaster for most Americans, especially young Americans, but they won't vote or take action in their own interest.

From the article:

However, by all accounts, the Federal Reserve under her leadership would continue cycles of quantitative easing. Millennials are wise to oppose this policy, because negative interest rates will make it utterly impossible for any of us to ever retire.

This sounds true and great (and it is), yet how many Echo Boomers understand negative interest rates or inflation? Even if they do, how many of them would actually take action? And finally, how many Echo Boomers vote their pocketbook, as - if this was true - they would have voted against Obama. Even from several financial studies I've conducted, only about 10-15% of Echo Boomers actually know what these things are and would take action on them. The remaining focus more on whether they like the person; and let's face it Yellen and Bernanke are likeable people.

Acting against their interest is a trait of the majority of Echo Boomers.

Is There A Bitcoin Bubble?

Bitcoin is tulip mania 2.0 - not gold 2.0, says @PeterSchiff: http://t.co/LbdSaQB5k4

— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) November 13, 2013

I write this post with the assumption that you know a thing or two about bitcoins. If you don't, stop reading.

A few months ago (see the below chart), people declared that the bitcoin bubble had popped because it had reached around $260 a bitcoin and then fell to less than $100 a bitcoin. Except, as of this writing, bitcoin's price exceeds that supposed bubble price. Writers would love to convince you that they know all about bitcoin and why it's bubble (or why it isn't a bubble), but the truth is that they have no idea. Neither do the media (who love to hire the most ignorant people they can find). And neither do I. Bitcoin offers an approach to money that, in its conceptual entirety, hasn't ever existed before now.

But let's first consider the major arguments against bitcoin, fostered by these "bitcoin is a bubble type" who only promote this idea (why don't they at least lend a voice to the other side?).

Why Bitcoin Is A Bubble

Bitcoin fluctuates too much. By far, this argument holds the most weight against bitcoin. Because its price fluctuates, it currently remains an unstable currency.

Few businesses accept bitcoin. This may seem like a problem now and it may be a problem in the future if business don't accept it, but bitcoin makes exchanging currencies cheaper than traditional methods. It costs less to travel with it, which, with Echo Boomers' love of travel creates a demand. That being written, it still needs more businesses to accept it.

Nothing backs up bitcoin - it is completely made up. This statement is completely true. Simply put: only a maximum of 21 million bitcoins can ever exist (in 2150, currently only around 12 million exist); whereas, as the Federal Reserve has demonstrated, the US Dollar limit might be infinite. Remember basic economics: the more of something exists, the less valuable it becomes. Of course, people like Schiff will argue that gold is limited too, to which I can respond, are you sure about that?

The government may try to block bitcoin. This is an excellent argument against bitcoin if and only if all other countries do this. If several countries decide to use bitcoins (like China and Japan), this arguments completely fails. In fact, and this is what is REALLY scary, if China decides to adopt bitcoin and refuses to accept US Dollars, expect the price to go through the roof.

Bitcoin could be a scam. This point carries a lot of weight as well. Another derivative of this argument is that the government is secretly behind bitcoin. To be fair to bitcoin here, I've heard people call the stock market a scam, so this is something that people tend to state when they don't understand or don't trust something.

Why Bitcoin Carries Value

Are banks necessary? With savings' accounts paying nothing in interest, bitcoin allows you to hold your money in an independent currency which can be turned into whatever local currency you need. Not only would this help with travel and keeping foreign exchange costs down, we would literally need no "local" currency whatsoever except for buying good in that amount. At the end of the day, it's much cheaper (no debit/credit card fees at merchants) than using the costly banking system. Oh, and yeah, the banking system costs consumers huge sums of money - bitcoin eliminates the middle man. Even Bernanke admitted this:

Vice Chairman Alan Blinder’s testimony at that time made the key point that while these types of innovations may pose risks related to law enforcement and supervisory matters, there are also areas in which they may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system.

Bitcoin doesn't need the United States. Bitcoin's growing popularity is happening in China and other Asian countries, not the United States. Simply put the Chinese see the value, not only in terms of efficiency, but also in terms of the lack of "control" (many Americans think bitcoin is too complex to understand because it involves mathematics).

Popular among young men. Men tend to lead innovation. Pretty much every early successful industry was dominated by men initially. The same applies to many trends. For instance, Echo Boomers love their tattoos, but if you go back about 30 years it was only men who had tattoos. We may see the same with bitcoin.

Wait until the Muslims hear about it. Some Americans don't know this, but Muslims are against earning interest (and paying it); in fact, it's one of the most wicked sins (part of the reason that Americans are left in the dark about this is because banking is behind Western culture and Islam doesn't fit in with banking - one of the reasons we are constantly encouraged to fight them as their existence threatens banks). Obviously, Islam isn't compatible with fractional reserve banking, and perhaps the world would be a better place if all of us weren't. But what's the alternative? Previously, nothing, outside of barter, which is painful.

Now, we have bitcoins and bitcoins don't use a fractional reserve banking concept, thus they may be in demand from over 1 billion Muslims (remember, bitcoin can only have a maximum number of 21 million). Luckily, most Muslims are unaware this currency exists, but when this changes, we could see bitcoin skyrocket.

As a note on these points, Americans like to think they own the world and know more than everyone. This and the previous point indicate that the power of the world is shifting and whether Americans "believe" in something or not won't mean that it will or won't succeed in the long run. In other words, it's irrelevant what some American thinks about a currency when it's in high demand in China, Hong Kong and Singapore and will later be popular in Middle Eastern countries.

Buying a bitcoin is like flipping the bird at the Federal Reserve. Admit it: this feels awesome.

Bitcoin is more evolved than gold. In a world where fiat currencies collapse (and in the long run, they will), many trumpet gold as the ultimate solution. But do you really want to barter with gold? Paper currencies make the bartering easier because you don't have to carry gold around with you, so in a sense, paper currencies - backed by gold - make sense. Even though nothing "backs up" bitcoin, it won't ever exceed 21 million. This means that it's final amount - 21 million relative to gold will be a price exchange similar to what a paper currency backed by gold would be (somehow the goofballs like Schiff never get this).

Bitcoin is global. And that's scary because basically, if it takes off, it will be a reserve currency in the world. For all the talk about "no country wants to have the reserve currency," well, they may all get their wish with a computer program displacing them.

Final Thoughts

I look at this list and am convinced I just don't know. Bitcoin may be the greatest invention that many of us are skeptical about ("Kids, if God wanted men to fly, he would have given them wings"), or it could be the next great bubble that pops. Either way, don't believe people who try to convince you that they know WITHOUT A DOUBT what bitcoin will be, because at best, we're all estimating and guessing. And based on the price of bitcoin today alone, I'd say this is normal human behavior.

What Real Estate Do Millennials Want?

If Texas, a state notorious for building expansive cities which require vehicles, begins to build real estate with businesses next to living spaces, then every real estate developer should follow. As you can read in the previous post, Generation Y Dumps Vehicles and Driving, Echo Boomers don't like driving and won't drive as much as former American generations. They carry an expectation that their jobs and favorite shops should be near them. I predict that Echo Boomers will prefer this type of living arrangement. From a bird's eye view, how should you approach real estate development? See the below, very simplified image:

In the center black area, social businesses - such as restaurants, coffee shops, and other stores - and living spaces - such as apartment and condos - should be either stacked (living on top, business on bottom), or living spaces nearby businesses. In the outer, blue area of the development, professional businesses (like Google, Southern Company, Macy's Headquarters, etc) exist in close vicinity to where Echo Boomers live. This allows Echo Boomers to travel a minimum distance in order to arrive at a professional office. Remember that Echo Boomers experienced more financial pain from $4+ gallon gas than other generations, who had the incomes to offset this cost. These high gas prices are still fresh in their minds. In Lubbock, where I recorded my original video, the real estate developers built the businesses, apartments and shops within one square mile (and across from Texas Tech University). The more compact the development, the better for Echo Boomers.

Keep in mind that since Generation Y will have a lower marriage rate, suburban areas will be in less demand than these areas. The "suburbs" appeal to families, whereas these areas appeal to single parents and singles. With a generation of approximately 33-40% singles (in the long run) out of 80 million, that's a demand of at least 26 million from this generation alone.

Millennial Women Will Make More Money

Readers may recall my assertion numerous times that Millennial females are faring better than men in terms of average income, for instance, Making Billions From Female Millennials:

Do we want to try and force something on our customers that they don't want? For female Echo Boomers, bet on fashion being in large demand (along with shopping-like experiences). Remember, female Echo Boomers have more money (on average) than their male counterparts.

However, readers may also see out-dated assertions that women still don't earn as much as men, and in a few rare cases, assertions that - quite frankly - haven't been updated since the 70s (such as the 77 cent myth).

Lo and behold, my research is far more accurate than these "gender wage gap" promoters, as a recent article on LinkedIn discussed a new trend of women becoming the major breadwinners:

The first thing you should know about the big flip — it’s big. 40% of American working wives now already out-earn their husbands (Pew Research 2012). In 40% of American families (with kids under 18), mom is the breadwinner (Pew Research 2013). In fact, the Boston Consulting Group has gone so far as to predict that in 15 years, women will not just close the income gap with men — but out-earn them.

Exactly as I've predicted: Millennial women make more money than Millennial men and we can expect that to remain. I don't agree with ol' Iz in the sense that Millennial women will have to "change" their expectations on what they want in men, as I expect a 33-40% of Millennials won't marry. But, the women of this generation are more educated and can expect to earn more, provided they don't choose to drop out of the workforce, like this past generation of women did (who then complained about their poor decision!). Also, this demonstrates why for both Millennial men and women, in a battle of cohabitation versus marriage, cohabitation wins.

So, even as Millennial women surpass Millennial men in income, and this trend continues, provided that they remain in the workforce, we still will see such wage gap myths throughout media (they hardly concerns themselves with research, truth or real data). Recognize, especially as a business, that this is a demographic with strong incomes and one you do not want to miss out because of false information prevalent in media. Only a foolish company would believe the women of this generation have low incomes, and that company will miss out on a major opportunity.

Relevant Research Point

Three really important points that cannot be missed here - and points you will almost never see in the media:

1. A never married woman who never has children has always made more money than a never married man who never has children. She also has a different set of values. As a business owner who may be targetting this demographic, don't miss this.

2. The biggest factor in male income is marriage. Even education plays far less than you would expect. An ever married man (married, divorced, widowed) makes significantly more money than everyone else. This holds even truer if he has children. I'm not going to engage in a social debate as to why, but marriage and family significantly affect male behavior, especially economic productive output.

3. Related to the second point, the married men of the ever married men category seldom make the daily financial decisions of the family. This has been noted by other sociologists and psychologists. Usually the wife makes the day-to-day purchase decisions. Likewise most of these men don't consider it "their" money even if they were the sole earner. I've seen this countless times in my research. The point here is that even with this group, you're not marketing to men solely but the family unit.

Julie Zeilinger: Challenges Facing Millennial Women

The responses to the interview questions may not represent the views of The Echo Boom Bomb's author. These interviews are provided to inform readers of information from experts and provide these experts with a medium where they can answer questions without any content changes. All linked material to products in interviews such as books or videos are affiliated with the supported platforms, such as Amazon or others. To see the full list of interviews related to Echo Boomers, iGenZ or Automons, see the ending acknowledgements on this post.

Feminism, Millennial Women and the Other Side

As I've predicted that Millennial females will make more money than Millennial males (updated research post), I've gotten insight and met various thought leaders who are themselves Echo Boomers. One leading voice has been Julie Zeilinger.

Who Is Julie Zeilinger?

Brief Bio (taken from About Julie):

Julie wrote the book A Little F'd Up: Why Feminism Is Not a Dirty Word. After her freshman year, she wrote the popular book for freshman girls, College 101: A Girl's Guide to Freshman Year. She has been named as one of the most influential bloggers under the age of 21 by Women's Day magazine.

So, Just Had To Ask ... (Interview)

1. In your article on Forbes, you state that Millennial women face a different form of discrimination than women in the past. What are these new forms of discrimination that Millennial women primarily face?

I believe that generally the type of discrimination Millennial women face tends to be more subtle than in years past. While our foremothers were raised in a culture that generally accepted women’s inferiority to men as fact, the feminist movement has made incredible progress. Today women do have access to education and are largely able to enter the same careers as men (although men still dominate many fields and do still earn more than us on average). I believe that while the feminist movement largely accomplished legal equality, we have yet to achieve cultural equality. Women are still seen as imperfect and are largely objectified in a way that men simply are not. One really pervasive example is street/sexual harassment – so many young women face street harassment on a regular basis. And yet as we are blatantly objectified and disrespected by men, we are told that we have achieved gender equality.

Of course, there’s a huge caveat to this in terms of the fact that there are of course still women who face serious and even life-threatening forms of discrimination in the U.S. as well as abroad. Women’s experiences with discrimination are largely impacted by socioeconomic factors like race, class, sexual orientation (etc) and it’s really impossible to generalize the experience of all women in this day and age because it truly does vary vastly. My thoughts above and those that I wrote about in Forbes are based on my experience and observations as an admittedly privileged young woman.

2. How do you think that these issues can be addressed? And who/what should address these?

SlutWalk protesters in Canada.

I believe that the feminist movement is still working hard in this day and age to address these issues. I think that we’ve made great strides through online-based campaigns – petitions on Change.org and other similar sites, Twitter campaigns targeting sexist figures, etc as well as on-the-streets style activism (like SlutWalk). But I really believe that these issues need to be addressed via education. Young women (and young men, for that matter) are barely taught about the feminist movement or about the social issues the feminist movement addresses in school. I think schools across the country need to incorporate these issues into their curriculum. I think it’s just as important for students to be educated about pervasive issues that exist today as it is to be educated about U.S. history and algebra.

3. One criticism that could be made against your argument is that Millennial women are performing better than Millennial men - in terms of career and education, and thus will do better in leadership over the course of their lives. How would you respond to critics that state this?

I think we need to separate statistics like those that show women are the majority of undergrads in this country from the concept of women and leadership – they are not one in the same. I can’t speak from my own experience because, after all, I am still an undergrad but from what I understand once women do enter the workforce they face roadblocks based on their gender that simply don’t exist in the same way for men. For example, women aren’t able to progress in their careers once they start families in the same way men are (hence the recent “having it all” debate). The U.S. is seriously lagging behind in policies that would help women ascend to leadership and have a family – for example, the U.S. is one of three countries that doesn’t have legally enforced paid maternity leave (the other two countries are Papau New Guinea and Swaziland, for the record) and most companies don’t offer family friendly policies like flex hours. Despite our increased presence in the work place, women still are burdened with most unpaid domestic duties. So, while women may be able to enter the workplace we deal with a number of other duties and responsibilities that hold us back from ascending to leadership positions. Basically we have to separate our legal abilities and even our presence in certain careers and educational institutions from leadership. Also, I think that, again, the argument that millennial women are performing “better” than millennial men varies depending on certain socio-economic factors.