Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Jason the Bartender On Life Without Technology

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After interviewing a non-social media user, Mark the Plumber On Success, Work and Early Retirement, I decided to interview a few people I know who do not uses social media at all. All of the people in this series are Echo Boomers who've chosen to stay off social media and in some cases (like Jason), avoid using the internet at all. While the majority of Echo Boomers use social media (over 90% use at least 1 social media platform) and almost all Echo Boomers use the internet (well over 95%), there are a few I know who do not use one of the two or both. This interview series highlights these.

The Series

Background

I met Jason while taking a road trip to Miami with some friends over a decade ago. My friends and I made a few stops along the way, one city where we met Jason (kept private because he's relatively well-known there for what he does). Because none of us were in a rush to Miami, we asked Jason for some recommendations the next day to see in his city and all became good friends. At the time, Jason stood out to us because he didn't have a Facebook account (rare in those days, though this has become more common). He also gave us his landline phone because he didn't have a cell phone. At the time, texting wasn't as big as it is now, but even then, more people had been getting cell phones.

Jason's story is fascinating because he defined success his own way and lived it. I also find it fascinating because it highlights how much time all of us internet natives have lost without thinking about the time we've lost.

We all continue to meet up at least annually as part of a private group.

Interview notes. Jason read this interview prior to each question and answer being posted, as the only edits may be the way questions are answered and some words and word choices. In addition, because Jason and I stay in touch, I've added some questions to this interview over time that I find fascinating and worth knowing from him given his life experience.

Had To Ask...

You've been a bartender for almost two decades in the same city. For Echo Boomers, that's extremely rare. What's your story here and what made you choose your city, as it's not a place that a lot of Echo Boomers live?

I wanted success with girls and I paid for a pick-up artist to teach me. One thing that he said when he taught our class is that you have to go where the girls are. I didn't know what that meant, but that weekend, we went out to bars and clubs and met girls. I noticed how many attractive girls were at bars and clubs.

I connected the dots in my mind - attractive girls come to bars and clubs to have fun. Bartenders make drinks for everyone and also talk with people. Pickup artists talk about social proof and to me, a bartender has social proof in a bar or club.

Of course, there's a professional side to all of this as well that I didn't think about early on. Things like how do you get a job in the first place? How do you get to be a bartender at the best spot in town? Things like that. But I didn't focus on that stuff at first and that helped me when I think about it because it's too easy to over analyze what you're doing and do nothing.

That's very common with Echo Boomers.

I'm the same. I've made that mistake before. So I stuck to learning bartending and getting my license. I worked at a few bars part time as a waiter before finally getting the opportunity. After I gained a few years of experience, I had a better idea of how to connect with people, so I was able to get to a bar near the beach.

As for how I chose the city, it was more of what I was trying to avoid at the beginning. I wanted to be a bartender at a beach town. But places like Miami attract a lot of tourists who are wealthy. These actually don't make great girls to meet, unless you have money or something that appeals to them. I hear guys say things like "high maintenance" or whatever, but what I noticed is that those girls weren't after some temporary fun or adventure. It's hard to describe, but there's definitely a class thing going on in attraction there.

I moved to a smaller town because it actually had better waiter opportunities, which I was going to use to become a bartender. This originally wasn't permanent, but what changed my mind was our town is more affordable to average people - including attractive girls who don't have a lot of money, but want to visit a beach on their vacation. What I noticed is that we get fewer tourists, but I didn't have the trouble with the tourists that I met in places like Miami.

I guess the way to put it is, you meet tens of thousands of tourists in Miami, but only get to have fun with ten or so because they're very high class. In my beach town, you may only get a few thousand tourists for the year, but I get to have fun with thirty or forty new girls a year because they're more down to Earth.

So you wanted to balance meeting new girls with a getting a favorable result.

Yes. I know you're aware of the red pill community and I've met quite a guys at the bar over the years who say that they're a part of it. They talk about this concept of women trading or marrying up, there's a term for it.

Hypergamy.

Yeah. There's some truth to that, but it's much more dependent on where than they like to admit. A girl who visits Miami is going to have very different standards than a girl who visits my city. The girls with money or the girls who want to meet someone with a lot of money are going to Miami. The girls who come to my city want to have fun. This applies to where people live too. Large cities attract a type of person while smaller cities also attract a type of person. It's a filter.

That's an interesting observation about Miami. In the times I've been there, it has a feel of being very "live in the right place, know the right people." And that's common in cities like Miami, New York, Dallas, LA, etc. Shifting to your reason why - meeting girls. You're talking a lot about tourists. Your city is much smaller than the Miami metroplex, why wasn't that a concern for meeting girls in your city?

Meeting local girls can backfire. I've seen this a lot. It's not a problem if you want to date for a long term relationship like marriage. But if you want to have fun? No. You can get a reputation fast and then it starts to work against you. This is where I disagree with the red pill guys. The player vibe may be attractive to some girls when they're younger, but it backfires hard as you get older. Generations also change over time and I've seen this as I get older. You want to be extremely careful about your local reputation.

This may not matter in a big city, but it does matter in cities like mine. Also, the dumb guys giving dating advice often hop from city to city. They don't realize what I'm saying here because they're rarely in the same city for long. If you've lived in a city as long as I have [about two decades] then you see how behavior plays out over time. When I moved here, I could immediately tell this because people would talk about others based on their reputation. This matters a lot in a city like mine.

A girl on a vacation wants to have fun. This is what I learned in pickup. When girls travel, they are not looking to meet a boyfriend. Anything that happens is just for fun. It's also temporary. The girl is in the city for a week or two and then she's gone. A girl you hook up with in your city and who decides to start a family there remains there. How she acts toward you when she's single and having fun will be very different than how she acts toward you when she's married with a family and older.

You can't do what I've done in a city that I live in if I was seeing girls who were locals. I've seen guys make this mistake since I've lived here and it backfired in horrible ways.

So, when local girls come to the bar, you simply treat them as a local?

Yes, like I would with friends. And this approach helps in many ways too because local girls can be social proof for you when tourists show up. They know you and feel comfortable flirting, which is only going to be more attractive to female tourists. You're also not a threat to local guys because you're not trying to get with local girls. It's a double win because jealousy hurts popularity, but popularity is attractive. So I'm getting the best of both worlds - I'm popular in my city and successful with tourists.

Bartenders can be like local celebrities in smaller cities. They know the people the best too.

We can be, but it can also be very easy to be hated quickly. I knew this other bartender a decade ago from a competitors bar who did the opposite of me - he would try to get with locals. He burned some key bridges and earned a reputation for being [a jerk]. You don't recover from that and if you lose your job and people know why, no one wants to hire you.

Good bartenders have to be likeable people. You won't only get more tips that way, but you'll also be a reason why people come to the bar. The owner, who's owned this bar for decades, loves me because many people come here to see me. They know I can make their favorite drinks. They know I'll come up with a fun game that we can all play. And they know that I remember things about them that make them feel seen. All of this compounds over time, plus makes work a lot of fun. I joke with some of our customers that I have more fun playing the games than them, though they'll insist I'm just saying that.

Do you plan to marry and have kids eventually?

No. I didn't realize until much later how much what happened to my parents impacted my decisions. My parents both worked as manufacturers before the government destroyed those jobs. It sent those jobs to Asian countries and my parents both were casualties. The result was chaos. My parents ended up divorcing. Looking back, I see how that altered my childhood.

For a long time, I believed that I didn't want a serious relationship because of my parents. But as I've gotten older, I couldn't help but wonder why my parents divorced. As a young child, I remember them being happy. When they worked, they had their rough days, but it wasn't anything like when they both lost their jobs.

I've also seen really great men face divorce. You know Ben. He has always been the greatest guy, and yet his wife divorced him. Even more crazy is how much money she ended up getting, even though she's more educated than him and made the choice not to work. That was hardly Ben's doing and Ben is less educated than her.

Yet the system punished Ben and rewarded his ex-wife with free money. A just system would have rewarded Ben and penalized his ex-wife for not working plus being highly educated and not using it. I found out later that she got grant money plus scholarships for her education. She got free money for school, married and chose not to work, then got the legal system to give her more free money.

You don't have this issue when you hook up in situations like mine. Yes, guys who do this in cities where they create a reputation will face blow back possibly, but not guys in my situation.

I don't have anything to offer a girl except an experience. Ben offered a lot - economic opportunity, resources, relationships, you name it. Look at what his ex-wife did to him. I've seen that multiple times and heard it from customers. Guys have a lot going for them and their wife manages to extract all those opportunities for herself. It's crazy too because you tell our group frequently that women in our generation are more educated than men, yet that doesn't seem to be how divorce lawyers see things.

I've consistently noted throughout my research that we live in an anti-male society, similar to the Soviet Union before it dissolved. You're seeing that in those examples. Shifting a bit to your choice not to use the internet, was it simply that you didn't need the internet for your job or was there another reason you decided against using it?

No, I wasted a lot of time on the internet in my early twenties. In fact, I did have a Facebook account for a very brief period. I know, I feel embarrassed.

I think about where I feel like I'm losing time and I've done this since I was a teen-ager. I don't always act on what I find. I've wasted time and kept wasting time. But eventually, I take action.

I never felt good about spending time on the internet. I noticed how it would shift my thinking - and it wasn't good. I also didn't like how people would share information that often didn't relate to me. At least when I spent time on it over a decade ago, I also saw how anything that angered people got more attention. We also saw that during [he-who-cannot-be-named], even if you weren't on the internet. People would bring stuff they read or saw on the internet and yell at others in real life. This happened multiple times at the bar. People would be arguing over something that happened in another part of the world. This is so weird.

It didn't take long for me to realize that the internet added nothing to my life. It did subtract a lot from my life. When you consider that we pay for the internet, that sounds absurd. I'm paying $50 a month to feel bad, plus losing 100 hours per month? That makes no sense.

I treated it like an addiction. I break addictions by making it hard to do them, so I cancelled my internet. I would sometimes take my laptop to the library or a coffee shop, so I got rid of my laptop. I lucked out on the cell phone because if you recall, the cell phones and plans were expensive early on. I couldn't afford those and didn't need one, so I skipped it.

Now, I see that I would have wasted even more time if I had had a cell phone. Plus, I find it odd how people can be having a great day, then look at something on their phone, and now their day is "ruined" to quote them. This has happened multiple times with people at the bar. "My day was going so well, then I saw" and they talk about something on their phone. I'm like, "Why don't you stop using technology that's ruining your days? How many ruined days before you see that the cost of that thing isn't worth what you get out of it?"

It's not always negative either. We have some customers who will start talking to their phones at the bar. To me, this just looks weird because they'll be saying things about how their life is so interesting, yet they're really just this person sitting alone at a bar talking to their phone. When I talk with them, they'll mention that they have thousands or millions of viewers. I get that they're showing off to their viewers, but it just looks weird to an outside viewer. But some of these people make good money doing it and their viewers get the benefit of living vicariously through others rather than living their own life, so there's benefit to them having a phone that allows that.

That's interesting because it's hard to imagine not having a cell phone - and I am guilty of this. Like I start to think about, "What would I do if I had a flat tire?" or something. But then, I used to live in a world where I didn't have a cell phone and I just had to adapt to the situation.

I think that's why I lucked with the pricing being high. I can see how having a cell phone over time would have made it feel impossible to not have one. But for me, when I see how many people get upset over something they see, I can't imagine having a constant source of negativity around me. It even feels weird that more people don't notice that about their phones.

But my job also doesn't require that I have one. I know a lot of people, especially executives, who must have a cell phone. The same with the internet. They have to constantly have access.

A little unrelated to phones and the internet, how have you been able to do the same thing for the past few decades without worrying about things like inflation, healthcare, or other costs? I know from talking with you over the years that you're one of the few Echo Boomer who doesn't have a "side-hustle" and you don't value materialism or money like others.

Bartending doesn't pay a lot, though the tips can be really good. But for me, it's also not stressful. From what I can tell, stress costs.

Another thing, I don't need to have fun after work because I'm having fun. When I was younger, I'd try to see two or three new girls a week. That was a lot of fun, but it also didn't come with big costs. Now, I'm okay if it's one every other week because this is less important than it was.

I didn't understand it at the time when my mom used to tell me that while the dollar benefits the government, destroyed communities end up with their own currency as they rebuild. I know you've travelled through the US and you've seen the abandoned places like I have. Some of those places have their own currency now. They'll never return to a centralized system because of the costs. My mom was kind of an example of that when she was alive. She worked manufacturing and the government destroyed her job by sending it to Asia. I see the same pattern with some of my IT friends who are watching their jobs get outsourced to cheap Asian countries.

That's the big thing I've shared with our group. "You gotta shut up." A lot of people have made their life more difficult by oversharing with the world. I've met tourists who worked in government come to this bar and tell me how they helped craft regulation from reading stuff on social media. When I asked them about this, I learned that a lot of these people don't really understand how life works in small towns. So they create arbitrary rules for these jurisdictions. But where do they get the ideas? People who go around bragging about their success. There's thousands of ways to beat inflation, but if inflation is a secret tax as I keep hearing, do you think policy makers want you to beat it? So a person does well with something, brags on social media, then a policy maker creates a new law.

This is exactly what several of them have told me that they do. Of course, they could be lying about what they do, but it does seem like there's new laws every year and you sometimes wonder where these ideas came from.

I had a shocking experience similar where a person shared that this blog [Echo Boom Bomb] was actually featured in a policy maker discussion. I don't know what was the result of that discussion, but the person showed me the slides and they were right. It did make me wonder and reminded me why not writing about some things is more important than the inverse. Back to money, I take it you don't have retirement accounts then?

No, but it's funny you ask. The other night, this guy came in to the bar who said he had millions saved in retirement, but was venting about it. I was a little stunned because I was like, "That's awesome - you're a millionaire and you can't be taxed on any of it." He went on a rant about how the government would probably end up finding a way to tax his accounts. He said the government was always trying to find new arbitrary laws to use on people, like we just discussed.

I don't understand all the details of how retirement accounts work outside of the tax free stuff, but I kept thinking, "This guy seems worried even though he has millions." I've never met a person with a retirement account who I envied or thought was living a great life. I'm living a life that I want. People like him sound miserable, yet they have millions. I guess I don't get it, but I feel like people get money and then worry all the time about their money. There's also this feeling of delay when I talk to them too. Like they're putting aside money for something, but that something is unclear. Like what is retirement? I love asking that question at the bar and it's clear that a lot of people have put thought and money into an account, but not what they mean by retirement.

I don't fear losing something I don't have a lot of. Plus, I watched my parents get destroyed by the government when I was a kid and my mom often shared stories about what they did. In my mom's words, "the system stole." The system can't steal from someone who has nothing. I'll never trust the government or anything they propose. I think a lot of people forget that a system willing to steal from other people will eventually be fine with stealing from you, if my mom is correct about theft.

Some of what you said highlights a mistake that I made when studying Echo Boomers in the past. I felt disturbed that Echo Boomers had little saved for retirement, but like your story, I wasn't thinking about whether the Echo Boomers were enjoying their present life and the value of that. For instance, my mom retired and died less than two years from retirement. She finally got to "live her dream life" and she died quickly after doing so. She also died over two decades earlier than her life expectancy. That won't happen to you. You are living the life that you want to live. You'll probably live to 100 too!

Oh man, I hope not. I don't think I could be a bartender after 60, though I have an uncle who still welds for some professional projects at 80, so maybe so. I've thought more this past year about what I can do when I'm older, but I want to be doing something and I'm going to have to because there isn't anything I have to fall back on. I'll have to adapt to the situation. But that beats spending all my time worrying about what happens to my money.

The whole retirement accounts and plans sound weird. "I now have enough money to do whatever I want." Great! So what do they do? Something they could have made money doing in the first place. Maybe I'm not thinking about it right, but that sounds backwards.

To take the opposite side of what you're saying, societies are built on sacrifice. A civilization has no future if everyone chases their passion. That's been the most contrarian thing to say since I started in demographics, but it's true. However, you provide an example of the common warnings that incentives drive behavior and you can't win against someone with nothing to lose. You saw your parents lose, like I saw my parents lose, even though they were playing by the rules. That's perverse incentives. You, like many Echo Boomers, don't trust the system so you don't invest in the system.

That happened during [he-who-cannot-be-named]. Leaders destroyed people who had spent decades of their life starting and managing their own business. I am so lucky because our town survives from tourism and we knew that if we complied with all of the nonsense, we'd sink our city. That didn't happen and many of the businesses here survived because we stayed open. But more importantly, our community realized what the system was willing to do. We also learned that people would follow the system even when they would privately disagree. That moment was a wake-up call for our city. We saw what happened to other communities. Some cities have been decimated since that time, almost like poverty over night.

If my mom and dad had been alive when [he-who-cannot-be-named] happened, I think they would say that the system was much worse than even they believed. And they believed it was bad.

Let's shift gears a bit and talk about what you've seen or heard with AI and how it affects bartenders? I struggle a bit with AI personally because I honestly don't think there's any there there, to use a phrase from Gertrude Stein. But you meet people frequently, so what's your experience with it?

I'm the wrong person to ask. I hooked up with this tourst a few months ago who started a conversation at the bar initially because of AI. She complained to me that a lot of guys on her phone were actually using AI. I didn't understand what she meant because that sounds confusing. She showed me a phone exchange where she and a guy were texting. I should add here that she had never met the guy in person. Anyway, she told me the guy's response to her text was fake and I asked how she knew. She showed me this technique that she would use where she would interrupt their conversations with nonsense and the guy would respond normal. But she said it's not the guy responding, but actually an AI. This still confuses me a bit. An AI can type on a phone? She spent a while explaining how the whole things works and it sounds crazy. Ultimately, she knows how to identify if a guy she's chatting with is an AI. Obviously any bartender would be thinking, "The other more practical way would be to actually meet people" but there's something about this generation that doesn't want to hear that.

This guy wouldn't have been able to use an AI in person. In other words, she made a choice to use a tool that wasted her time. After she and I hooked up, the next morning she shared that a lot of guys she would meet on her phone weren't very interesting and often lacked basic social skills. That made me wonder why the guys were using phones to meet girls. From her experience, these guys weren't learning any basic social skills by using their phones to meet girls. But then I wondered why she bothered as well. If you know that you're going to meet people who don't live up to your standard, then stop.

In life, it's extremely easy to set a goal and fail. However, these people have managed to add wasting time to this process. They set a goal, then create as much unnecessary complexity as they can so that when they fail they not only fail, but lose as much time failing in the entire process.

There's a lot of truth to what you're saying. Ultimately dating is about dealing with another person's habits. That may sound unromantic, but it's true. Outside of hook-ups and flings, a person will always regress to their habits in dating. This never matters in short term situations.

Introverts would actually be happier meeting people on apps because apps are really built for people who can't handle normal social interaction. Apps are also built for people who don't want to socially grow because facing conflict and rejection actually make you grow, even if both hurt. Getting rejected on an app reduces the pain, but eliminates the growth. I tell this to my sons all the time - you must face pain through experience and let it make you grow. You either overcome challenges or challenges overcome you.

And like you're saying, it also trains people to not think about their values. Apps distract people from values. Think about a guy who really values health. He would be better meeting girls at a gym or health food store than any app. He's not using his time well by being on an app, plus app use isn't healthy and there's more evidence of this every year.

Apps want to interfere with this entire process because Silicon Valley more than Wall Street fundamentally wants to monetize every interaction. I've had executives who have told me this. They don't want you to socialize, date or marry unless you've paid them their bounty. And if you don't want to continue paying them their bounty, they want to wreck your relationships. This is what some of them believe, but it doesn't mean that people aren't responsible for their choices. People can recognize what these executives want based on what they do and live life on their terms. Will it add some costs? Yes because on the opposite side of the bounty you pay Silicon Valley is convenience - that's their selling point. "We make it easy for you to get what you want" but in reality, you'll pay a bounty that may be more expensive over time.

Back to AI, do you fear that AI will replace bartending?

I'm in my position because I'm likeable. Local people come to our bar to hang out and to interact with me and others. Tourists come to our bar through our restaurant since people love it. I frequently hear, "So-and-so said we had to come by and ask for."

AI won't replace any of this because the people who come to bars are social people. Social people like people. Social people do not like AI. Like you said about introverts and apps, we don't get a lot of introverts at the bar or if we do, I can tell they're working on being most social. They always have fun too because when I notice this, I make sure they have a good time.

Keep in mind that technology tools to do what some people are using AI for have existed long before this AI technology, yet social people didn't consult with these tools. An introvert might have asked people on the internet, while an extrovert would call a buddy or two or ask a mentor. You would not believe the number of conversations I've been in where a person shared how inaccurate online information is. I think that part of this is that inaccurate information gets more attention. At least that's what I noticed in my 20s.

Plus, I think that most of us start socializing for the take in an interaction. Over time, we learn to enjoy and appreciate the give. Getting a big tip is nice and I enjoy it. But hearing that I'm the guy someone can open up to and not feel judged at all is even better. Interactions are never the same. This means that we never know what to expect and that makes them enjoyable. The red pill guys get one thing right and that's consistent rewards are boring. That's what makes socializing so much fun. But like you said, to enjoy socializing, you also have to realize that you don't always have great experiences. That's what keeps interactions fun and interesting.

So it sounds like you think that some of the excitement over AI really reflects poor social skills?

When I hear people talk about the positive of AI, it almost always sounds like a take mindset. For example, we had a CEO come into the bar the other day talking about he could fire all his employees and replace them with AI. That's a take mindset. He's paying for his employees. He would like to take their money and replace them with AI. What he doesn't understand is that part of what gives him joy is employing people. That joy gives him meaning, even if he's not mature enough to realize it. He's the kind of CEO that will have 0 people at his funeral because he created a product that no one will eventually be able to afford. He will have made no impact. But he'll have an AI that does everything for him! Maybe his AI will attend his funeral.

Think about what this person believes about people. They exist for him to get something. When you stop and consider that, it's powerful. In his mind, people only exist for him to get something. If a person has nothing to give him, they have no value in his mind. In other words, if this guy could get everything he needed without people, he would be done with all of humanity.

Compare that to another CEO I know who's come to our bar over many years. He owns an oil company. In his many years there, his company has lost a few lives due to explosions. Oil is a dangerous job. However, with some advancements in robotics, a robot can do the dangerous tasks without human life being at risk. This CEO is using AI to prevent hard working people from dying. He understands that an employee giving their life for the company is not good. A robot's end means nothing because a robot is not person. That's a very different CEO. He doesn't look at people as costs. He looks at people as valuable. In fact, I have yet to talk to that guy without him going on about one of his favorite employees, which so far as I can tell, is all of them.

Think about the trajectory of those CEOs. Who would you want to work for? Who would you want to do business with? In my view, my parents frustration at the system was because the policy makers shared the same philosophy of the first CEO. That won't end well for anyone and I doubt it will end well for him.

In the broader sense, you're actually highlighting how the application of a tool is actually what's important. For instance, in high school, I thought the internet would be a great way for people to share information. You could live in any part of the world and access information from people anywhere. I never thought people would use the internet to replace social relationships. Reading information on the internet is not the same thing as creating memories with your children, family or close friends. But as I've gotten older, I realize that how someone uses a tool communicates who they are as a person. Like that CEO who's trying to save lives by having a robot do the dangerous jobs, his use of technology shows that he values people.

Yeah and this is why I don't worry as much about AI as much as other people do. My boss is great and would be the same way, if the restaurant or bar business was dangerous. It's not. And he knows as well as I know that a big part of why our customers come here is the people who work here along with what we offer. We help people create great memories and that's why we're all here.

Are there restaurant owners who will try to replace their employees with AI? Yes. And will that work? In some situations, it might. But our customers would not enjoy that experience.

In general, do you think technology has actually improved our standard of living? For instance, our generation is technology native, but our generation as I predicted will not and is not currently outliving our parents. This was my most contrarian take when I predicted this and I received a lot of pushback, yet here we are.

Well, since I don't have the internet or a cell phone, I'm probably biased a bit. What I see at the bar and restaurant too is people wasting a lot of life energy. Like I mentioned earlier, people can let something on their phone change their entire attitude, even if what's happening in their life is amazing. I do get a sense that people always think "eventually" things will be better. I don't know if you've felt that, but it seems to be the expression I've heard since I became a bartender, like "times are bad right now, but this is only temporary." How many years is it going to be temporarily bad?

[He-who-cannot-be-named] was really revealing. That's when a few of our friends got rid of their phones because they were shocked by what tech companies were doing. But my take is that if you're an in person person and you stay that way, you'll do good. I know you say our life expectancy has dropped, but from I hear, the Amish's life expectancy is actually rising and they're not fans of technology.

If someone asked you for what the key is to giving up technology, what's your answer?

You have to value your time and be scared to death of a bad habit over powering you. Otherwise, you won't do it. I hate wasting time, even if I've done some of it in my life. I always felt horrible. You do not get time back ever. You cannot extend your time and you cannot price your time. Your time is limited.

It is so easy to avoid a bad habit if you can make yourself deathly afraid of a bad habit's power over you. People always think that because I'm a bartender that I must drink. No. I've never had a drink in my life. Why? Because I've seen how many drunk people lose control and do things or say things they regret. Most people don't do this and most people are social drinkers, plus one new trend is people who don't drink coming to bars just to socialize. But I avoided alcohol because I was always afraid that I would get addicted and wouldn't be able to stop the addiction. This fear is terrifying to me. It's the opposite of our society's encouragement of "overcome your fear." My value is make fear your best friend and exploit it to avoid all the bad things you don't want to do. Make them very, very scary in your mind. Make those bad habits keep you up at night. The more you fear those bad habits, the easier it becomes to stay away from them.

I think fear is great, but it's all about how you use it. I find it odd that people don't fear losing time or they don't fear bad habits over powering them. But they'll go to horror movie or something like that to be told what they should be afraid of? That doesn't make sense.

Finally, I like to get other men's take on this. My own take for young men is all the opportunities are in Asia. But what would you say to young men below the age of 18 living in the United States?

I made the mistake when I was a young man of over valuing girls. I've had some great experiences, but it took a while for me to realize that you don't learn anything about reality from girls. They don't live in reality. A lot of young men's frustration centers around this even if they don't realize it.

For instance, a few years ago I hooked up with a woman who claimed that she got grants from the government for her business solely because she was a woman. Apparently these exist, as I've confirmed this with other friends of mine. But what does a person's gender have to do with business? What does their gender even have to do with ideas? What does their gender have to do with results for their customers?

That's not real. And she didn't care about results because she could keep getting money even if she got no results. This would never work for a man. Same with me. If I treated all my customers poorly, I would lose my job. But that was her entire attitude almost like, "I don't have to do anything because I'll still make money." That isn't real and at some point the people with that approach end up draining the entire system.

In that world, there's nothing left for anyone.

I'll briefly interrupt you here only to share that a professor in my college received private emails due to his name. He had an assumed female name, like Courtney, even though he was male. These emails invited him to female only events that the university supported with funding and materials. There's nothing wrong with that at all, except that when he tried to start similar events for men only, the university called this discrimination. He shared these emails and exchanges to reveal what was going on beneath the surface at the institution. A lot of his colleagues didn't know that this was happening. It may have changed now, as laws change, but that was within the last 20 years. I will note that this involved one institution and I'm not sure if other institutions allow this or how they would have responded. But I know it was one of many decision makers for encouraging my sons to seek educational opportunities in Asia.

That's part of why young men feel frustration. Many of them don't even know why, but what you're describing is socially acceptable in some places. It's fine if it's balanced, but when it's not, what you're seeing is an extraction. That's a system taking resources from one group and giving it to the other.

Pick-up artists point out that men are built by Mother Nature to understand survival. Women are not. This nuance which I know you disagree with is considered politically incorrect, yet if you observe societies where women start to have more authority, they always engage in anti-survival behaviors. This is a shocking reality that only pick-up artists seemed to have picked up on.

The United States will not survive. No one knows when it will end, but it will end. It's also getting bad for everyone, women included. Like you frequently say, the Soviet Union at one time was praised by American feminists for being an equal society, yet the Soviet women hated it. They wanted to come to unequal America. Everyone loses when a society moves to anti-survival mode, which is where we are.

This is what young men feel because men inherently understand survival. It's written into our genes. Mother Nature pressures us to get exceptional results so that we survive.

I think your advice to young men is the best. If they're young enough, the best opportunities are in other places. Also, young men will always be in high demand when societies struggle to survive because this is when men are valued. A country either on the rise or trying to rebuild without ideology often make the best places for young men to live.

Or a new society all together. I like to remind people that what often gets missed about Rome is that Rome was founded by young male outcasts from other civilizations. Young men's ability to organize into hierarchies is amazing. I remember young men getting into a fight and being best friends the next day. Why? Because the hierarchy was clear. It's funny, but men are like this. Western men often don't know this because they're propagandized by books like Lord of the Flies, yet those books are all fiction. Those books' fiction also contradict what we observe in reality. When it's only young men, the coordination and organization through differences actually work out quite well.

It also doesn't have to be official either. Our group has done well over time and we don't have official stuff because it's just us hanging out and sharing experiences. Young men need that with other men. It also prevents what can happen when groups get sponsorships. They trade freedom of exchange for ideology in some cases. That's one reason why I really dislike the red pill. A lot of guys will say it's an open discussion. It may have been early on, but it's become a marketing gimmick in my opinion and centers around selling products.

I think you're right that nothing about the West says opportunity for young men and I don't see that changing in our lifetimes. This also answers why I don't have kids and don't want them. Being more driven by survival, I don't think I would be giving them good odds to survive. I think that's a big reason why a lot of men don't want children. We prioritize survival. Our children would have a low probability of that.

I'll end on noting something I've seen with what you've observed about survival and the application of AI, getting a little back to technology. While I don't agree with you about gender and survival, I do agree that the West is anti-survival overall. China is the opposite. China's applications of AI are very different than the US's applications of AI. And China is dominating AI, not the US. I also think that this success will carry over to other Asian countries over time.

If I'm right, this will continue because fundamentally AI is not conscious like people believe. AI has no value without human experience because by itself it is nothing. I don't expect most people to agree with me on this just like no one agreed with me about Millennials' poor life expectancy. But this will age very well over time. And young men especially should consider this. Do you want to work in a world that applies technology to anti-survival endeavors? Like you just said about children, whatever applies to you will apply to your children.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Review

Quick Acknowledgement

A quick thank you to all the people I've spoken to over the past two decades - from the Silent Generation all the way to the AutoMons. It has been an absolute pleasure to meet everyone and hear your life story. I share more details on this thanks in the ending part of this post.

Terminology

Echo Boomer/Millennial/Generation Y 1981 - 1995. The term "echo boom" comes from the demographic observation that Echo Boomers are a massive generation in size, while Generation Y is the title because Echo Boomers follow Generation X. I generally tend to use Echo Boomer as the noun, Millennial as the adjective, and Generation Y as the title when talking about Echo Boomers - these individuals are all the same in terms of people born between 1981 and 1995 (you will see that I sometimes include 1980 in my posts). Unfortunately, I do not always do this consistently, so you will sometimes see Millennials as a noun. However, they are all the same.

iGenZ/Generation Z 1996 - 2010. This is the internet generation that follows Echo Boomers. As a generation they only know of a world with the internet. I call this generation iGenZ for this reason (shortened version of Internet Generation Z). I generally tend to use iGenZ as the noun and Generation Z as the title for this generation - these individuals are all the same in terms of people being born between 1996 and 2010. I do not share most of my research publicly on this generation as my predictions with Echo Boomers were extremely successful and I am replicating that success with iGenZ privately. Unlike Echo Boomers, my research with iGenZ has been global, mostly with Asian iGenZ.

AutoMons/Generation Alpha/Generation A 2011 - 2025. I refer to this generation as AutoMons (The Automation Monoculture Generation), as they were born in a world where significant automation will be the norm - 3d printing, artificial intelligence, etc. They also show early signs of shifting toward social monoculture, which is where I get the Mons in AutoMons.

Reminder

When some people start research, they evaluate data that confirms their theories. As they find data that support that support their theories, they add this data to their research. Data that don't confirm their theories? They exclude this. In addition, they don't look at further details that may explain a pattern. What I've found with this group of researchers is that they'll look only at the surface, as long as the surface of the data they find confirms their theories.

As many long time readers know, I do not research with this approach. I look at what the data show, I investigate what else I may need to collect, and I evaluate if there's missing details or nuance in my data. This is key because I don't have a story that I'm trying to tell ahead of time; if a story exists, I'll let the data communicate that story.

Without diving too deep, I started this research approach early in life for a 4th grade science fair project. I measured how long batteries lasted and included the cost per minute. At the time of the contest, I favored one of the batteries personally because of humorous marketing. That favorite battery of mine didn't last the longest, nor was the best cost per minute. But it didn't matter because I learned to put aside my personal view of things and measure as precisely as possible.

I do the same with my analysis of Echo Boomers, iGenZ and other research. Regardless of how I feel about my generation or my children's generation is irrelevant. What the data show about these generations is not.

What does this mean for readers or prospective clients? It means that you may dislike some of what you read, especially if you are the kind of person who cannot put aside your personal view of the world. The more you're like this, the less likely you'll be able to learn anything from my research. This applies to everything too and you don't want to hire me to work on any project - I may conclude something that you don't want to hear. I've concluded many things that I personally don't want to hear or know - but that's precisely the point of research!

Be honest with yourself about who you are. If you want to know what you want to know as most people do, then find information that confirms what you want to believe. My research will never be for you.

Brief Overview of Research Approach

In the past, I've worked for financial institutions (banking and insurance) where I had both face-to-face or voice-to-voice conversations with people. In the case of phone conversations, I spoke with people throughout the world, though mostly in the coastal United States of America. In the case of face-to-face conversations, most of these people lived in the city where I resided with a few people being temporary travelers from other places.

Unlike most research, I avoided tracking or retaining any private information about individuals (name, contact information, etc). For an example, in a conversation with a customer, I would categorize them as an iGenZ, Echo Boomer, Generation Xer, Baby Boomer, Generation Silent or older. I rarely met people who didn't fall into one of those categories. While in some cases, institutions allowed us to vet if we were getting good information, as this was key to being able to sell products, in other cases, we could not. I excluded anyone in the my research who I could not confirm was communicating truth. Every researcher faces the challenge of, "Is this person telling the truth" especially if what's being stated it out of the ordinary.

Later, I started the Millennial Pool. At the time, this involved observing what Millennials posted as assertions publicly versus what they would admit to doing later. In other words, I was comparing what was said versus what was done. This also meant that a significant amount of what people may find on social media was eliminated because most of what is asserted isn't true. (As a research note for yourself, compare the people you know, what they post on social media, and what is true. You'll not only notice a theme over time, you'll observe that some sources would be better than others if you were to use them in a study.) A simple example of this would be a Millennial boasting about "owning a home" and "I bought my first home at 21", but later complaining at the rising cost of rent and how this is going to prevent him from every owning a home. Yes, in a world of people bragging along with posting every detail of their life, these contradictions existed. That "gap" in data was what I found useful in research, not anything people posted.

In the same manner as I advised in The Next Billion Dollar Idea, once I had the conclusions I needed, I kept the conclusions in summaries and eliminated any data. One big point that people missed early on: Echo Boomers and iGenZ may think and do one thing when younger, but this won't always be true as they age. "Data relevancy" will be corrupted if you keep irrelevant data in your data sets.

Finally, I conceded early on that with people, no data set will ever be perfect. The best a researcher can do is make short, medium and long term predictions and evaluate how the short term predictions age. If he's right on the short term predictions, he may have the theme of the data correct, which increases the probability that the long term predictions will be correct.

Millennial Financial Data (As Of 2011)

A brief reminder of the Echo Boomer financial data I had collected up to 2011:

Millennial Income (Media Figures)

  • Millennial median household income: $58,620

  • Millennial median individual income: $22,000

Note that my research differed a little for households (the figure was slightly higher). However, I have defaulted to media studies at the time (noted here because there wasn't a statistically significant difference. Also, my major focus didn't start with income, as income can fluctuate and doesn't paint as accurate of a picture in my view than assets and liabilities. As one of my mentors said about business one time: the cashflow of a business for a particular year says very little about the company compared to the assets and liabilities of the same company over time.)

Percent of Echo Boomers Who...

  • Own their home: 10.4%

  • Had non-retirement savings: 32.2%

  • Had retirement savings: 24.5%

  • Had student loan debt: 32.4%

  • Had credit card debt: 34.9%

  • Had other debt (excluding student loans and credit cards): 29.2%

Median (And Mean) Financial Numbers

  • Non retirement savings: $0.00 (mean $1,679.8)

  • Retirement savings: $0.00 (mean $1,577.5)

  • Student loan debt: $0.00 (mean $6,274.7)

  • Credit card debt: $0.00 (mean $1,400.7)

  • Other debt (excluding student loans and credit cards): $0.00 (mean $3,425.3)

People frequently confuse median (the exact 50% point of a data set) and mean (heavily influenced by outliers). Thought leaders were often surprised by the student loan numbers from 2011, but I remind people frequently that over half of Echo Boomers did not graduate college. I've also cautioned people (albeit later) on being precise with population definitions - I suggest you watch that video if you want to know more details about defining populations (notice that video covered data that went through 2012).

Millennial Top 5 Financial Goals

  1. Save money (16.9%)

  2. Pay off debt (14.4%)

  3. Buy a home (13.4%)

  4. Go to or continue higher education (12.9%)

  5. Be financially stable (10.9%)

Unlike most polling, I let Echo Boomers tell me any of their financial goals. They could say anything. While I grouped some themes (ie: saving for house as a goal meant that the person's goal was to buy a house). Two of the biggest losers? Anything related to marriage, such as save for a wedding, honeymoon, get married, etc (0.5%) and buy a car (2.5%).

Prediction: Education Bubble and Regret

I predicted that at least 25% of Echo Boomers would regret attending college and cautioned that Echo Boomers' stories about attending college might someday mirror what we heard during the housing bubble. At the time of this prediction, former Generations such as the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers and Generation X had less than 5% of their generational members regret attending college, so I had a lot of people argue that I was predicting a big shift. However, as of my research over the years of 2021 and 2022, 37% of Echo Boomers have told me that they regretted attending college. Let me repeat a point I made which we are now seeing:

The perception of education changes. Echo Boomers were inculcated with "get a degree" messages from everywhere. As Echo Boomers mature and make less money than they expected, they will communicate their disappointment with education to the next generation. Unless Echo Boomers look back on education with rose color glasses, the next generation will hold a different outlook on education than their parents.

In addition to the 37% of Echo Boomers who regret attending college, I found that almost one-third (33%) of Echo Boomers report being underemployed with a degree. Undermployment in this context either means they have a degree and no job or they have a degree but are only finding part time or internship work. On a related point here, the only educational path that is not in an education bubble (still!) is medicine.

Humorous Prediction: The Education Bubble Popped First

I write this tongue-and-cheek: my humorous prediction about the education bubble popping first is true. In addition to a decline in college enrollments, universities are closing in the United States at a pace of one a week. Tattoos are still popular, though one of the fastest growing industries by percent is tattoo removals. The tattoo bubble hasn't popped yet, but it's coming.

Note that I wrote both the original prediction post in jest, as well as this follow-up section. The tattoo industry, like the tattoo removal industry, fascinates me because of how similar both industries are to The Sneetches by Dr. Seuss, even though his work is entirely fiction!

Prediction: Healthcare

In the post Med School Blows Past the Education Bubble I remarked that medical school would blow past most college degrees since medical school was in a shortage and other degrees were not. This has held correct and in fact, medical wages have significantly outpaced other industries. Some doctors are now making more money than CEOs of medium to large sized companies - it's almost insane to see these wages until you realize the shortage in medicine. I also noted in the past that the USA graduates almost as many lawyers as doctors and lawyers keep trying to add complexity to the system, which has only increased costs. Finally, the anti-male sentiment in the USA has caught up with the country. Hard working young men do not enter medical school, nor want to (recall I noted this would the effects of some policies being put in place). American college haved earned the reputation of being "anti-male hate spaces" among young American men. While I don't agree with their sentiment, these institutions have certainly supported policies that have made them less appealing to young men.

Not only did my post age well in terms of how much money doctors make, it aged extremely well when you look at life expectancies of Americans: it's plummeting. Americans are dying faster and their healthcare costs are skyrocketing. I did warn you it was coming! Even the American Medical Association is forced to agree with what I cautioned (and note too that they're even talking about the extreme bureaucracy with examples such as "Physicians today, on average, spend about two hours on paperwork for every one hour we spend with patients").

Compared to Generation X, the Millennial generation has a higher suicide rate for both men and women when evaluating age-by-age comparisons of previous generations. As a generation, the data show that US born Echo Boomers will not outlive their parents.

(The negative sentiment against young men of American colleges has been a mixed bag of suffering and blessings for American parents. American parents who sent their sons to American colleges paid a price - and it wasn't only a high financial price. However, American parents with sons who sent their kids to non-American colleges had the opposite experience. Of the parents who sent their sons overseas for education, they spent 3-5% of what the American college students paid in full - meaning that a $80,000 a 4-year degree program overseas would cost around $4,000. But there was an added benefit: the education was better overall and by graduating in those countries, these young men were able to start their business and work life there.)

Prediction: Millennial Women Will Make More Money

I predicted that Millennial women would make more money than Millennial men and this has held true as of my recent analysis in 2021. Some quick points on how I compared these differences: identical data points were compared (ie: comparing a female sales manager with 10 years of experience, a bachelor's degree and working in the same area as a male sales manager with 10 years of experience and a bachelor's degree), married Echo Boomers were deducted (see below point), and only data points that exist within a single context - for instance, if a Millennial male worked 3 jobs versus a Millennial female who worked 1, that's not the same context.

Summary of 2021 findings:

  • When comparing non-Married Millennial males and females using ceteris paribus factors, Millennial females make approximately 8% more than Millennial males.

  • Millennial males are more likely to work multiple jobs, but also more likely to not work at all - the bell curve is very broad when looking at work for Millennial men compared with Millennial females.

  • Over 32% of Echo Boomers own a home, most of this group is married/coupled Echo Boomers. In 2011, only 11% of Echo Boomers owned a home.

  • The 15% subset of Millennial males have done what I predicted in private discussions with financial executives. Those of you who attended those presentations should continue the suggestions. I do not and will not share pubicly these predictions, as I am continuing to invest in this area.

As a general point on why married Echo Boomers were excluded (and should be): in many married couples, one person will work more while the other may work either less or not at all "officially" - this latter point being important.

Consider that a married partner who does not work still can add significant value by extending the value of the income of their partner. For an example, a stay-at-home wife may be able to leverage her husband's income by taking advantage of opportunities and sales that people who work regularly cannot take advantage of, such as buying toilet paper cheaply before the shortage in 2020.

It is actually very common for single income households to have a partner who leverages their partner's income; this matters in situations where there is an income tax, as tax authorities cannot take advantage of someone who extends an income by purchasing more value than standard. For this reason, comparing income of married people is unreasonable because we'd also have to evaluate how the other partner is possibly extending that income. That's more difficult to do in research and it outside the scope of my prediction that Millennial women would make more than Millennial men (which they did) when we consider a ceteris paribus context.

Prediction: Millennial Marriage Rate

I predicted that 33-40% of Echo Boomers would never marry. In 2011, only 22% of Echo Boomers had married. As of 2021, only 48% of Echo Boomers were married. Based on 2021's data, I expect that 67-70% of Echo Boomers will marry (higher than initially expected). A big part of this slight upshift is that more Echo Boomers have committed suicide than I expected (and at earlier ages) and their life expectancies are dropping faster than their parents, which will lower the never married population, as never marrieds tend to belong to both of these groups.

As I noted when speaking at events, a low marriage rate would mean the following:

  • A shortage of housing, as more single Echo Boomers means there's an increased need for housing, apartments, townhomes, etc.

  • Declining individual productivity. An old idiom goes that society is built on the back of married men. This is true, as married men produce significantly more economic output than every other demographic group. A decline in married men means a decline in productive output. Healthcare is a big industry that's seen an absolute collapse in male labor, especially male labor working extra hours (men are much more likely to work more hours).

  • Increased and rising crime. Married people commit fewer crimes and are more likely to vote on policies that keep their family safe (anti-criminal policies). In addition, children raised without two parents are statistically more likely to be criminals.

This pattern has not applied to the young men who've left the United States (see next point). Of those men in 2021, over 77% of them are married (vs 48% of US men).

One American mother described it best with her son, "I kept thinking that I had done something wrong with my son because he couldn't get a date in high school. Then he moved to China for college and married a Chinese girl three years later. It was the culture, not how I raised him!"

Observation: Ambitious Young Men Leave the United States

In the past, I observed that approximately 12-18% of young male Echo Boomers had planned to and left the United States. The most well-known example of this is none other than Nomad Capitalist (started by Andrew Henderson), who also ended up turning moving out of the United States into a business. In speaking with both him and others like him early, their biggest customers were young male Echo Boomers.

(I frequently tell thought leaders to read his thoughts about MGTOW, dating and the US versus non-US culture. If you investigate his thoughts and what he's telling young men, then you start to realize what the culture of the United States has been communicating to young men.)

Now, iGenZ has also joined. Ambitious young men in both generations have left. In addition, many business ideas have also exited the United States completely. I'll note here that this isn't only due to the sentiment towards young men, but also an increase in bureaucracy. For instance, I had a business solution for healthcare that would reduce standard healthcare visit costs by 90%.

I initially reached out to US firms about this - people would see a huge reduction in their healthcare costs, plus I worked with a team to think about scaling this solution in other medical disciplines. I was wrong. Our idea would have needed anywhere from $2-5 billion to start because of all the bureaucracy we would have to comply plus competitors would be attacking us from all sides.

The United States had no interest in this solution at all, nor did companies want it. Meanwhile, some companies within countries out of Asia reached out for this solution.

This also attracts young men as well, as we all work for a purpose. Young men want to solve problems. Asia is providing huge opportunities and continues to be a destination that many ambitious young men aim to gain citizenship. I've noticed how the industry helping young men gain citizenship in Asian countries has grown rapidly.

Prediction: The United States Becomes Socialist

While easy to overlook at the time, my prediction that Generation Y's lack of respect for privacy would push them into socialism has aged well. In fact, my exact words were:

As to how this all plays out in the long run, see the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union from history.

In general, socialist societies are built upon the framework mentioned in the post - "value is perceived as a concept determined solely by others." Socialism like it's result (communism) relies on centralization through controlling concepts of value toward the community. Value is determined by the community (others), not the individual. What people consistently miss about capitalism is that both the producer and consumer in a capitalist society determine value as individuals. People often mis-assume that it's only the consumer who does this; they forget that a producers also choose what products they want to create.

Social media has further extended this beyond even what I predicted at the time. Last year, my girlfriend showed me a viral clip of a person on social media violating private property. But that wasn't what she said about the video. She felt enraged by the property owner who had certain values. The person in the video violated the property owner's private property, yet many Echo Boomers and iGenZ (my girlfriend is iGenZ) see this as acceptable. Outside of a few comments, most people viewed the behavior of the video recorder as acceptable, even though he violated the private property of a property owner.

The United States is not a capitalist country. Capitalist countries enforce private property.

People are slowly seeing this now. I find it peculiar (and funny) that these leaders didn't see this developing a decade ago with this generation. This was always inevitable.

Prediction: Products

Electric cars. As I predicted with Tesla, electric cars have been extremely popular with Echo Boomers, especially since Millennial attitudes toward environmentally friendly companies is positive. I expect that this trend will continue and as electric cars become even more affordable, for their use to spread. Echo Boomers have never forgotten the pain they felt at $4 a gallon gas back in 2008 when oil was over $150 West Texas Intermediate. To this day, oil prices have never risen that high even though actual oil resources are declining. The only surprise here is that some of the competitors to Tesla have done poor in their electric car production.

Energy drinks. As I predicted, supplements did well with single male Echo Boomers, especially the more active Echo Boomers. One suggestion I made early given the success with Red Bull was that energy drinks should broaden their appeal to single male Echo Boomers and this has paid off for the ones who followed this. Energy drinks have become a huge market and they've been able to attract many male consumers outside of the fitness industry (Monster Beverage being a great example of one that does this with blue collar male Echo Boomers and Celsius Holdings being a great example of one that does this with white collar male Echo Boomers).

Survivalism takes off in 2024. The survivalist industry has done well since I published that post, though it was very niche. This year, the interest in the industry has absolutely exploded - some of the private startups in the industry are making $1+ million a weekend teaching survivalist skills to the exceptionally wealthy. This isn't only the skills either; the industry has seen an explosion in interest in the actual goods that makeup the industry. This is one of the hottest industries in 2024 that still is flying below the radar.

App Dating. As I've long advised with companies, when appealing to Millennial females, details and the shopping experience matter. The popular dating apps that exploded in popularity followed this advice. The experience felt like shopping for dates and the apps encouraged that users would add key details that single female Echo Boomers wanted to know. Also, I advised some of the companies to track how Millennial females used the apps, such as where they would look and how much time they would spend on certain areas of the app because these are key to improving the shopping experience. While the female Echo Boomers didn't pay as much as the male Echo Boomers, female Echo Boomers were key for dating apps as the male Echo Boomers wouldn't pay for the app if there were no females (gay dating apps being exceptions to this point). Another related appeal to dating apps and why they've been so popular with Echo Boomers is that Echo Boomers prefer self-esteem boosts over money and sex and dating apps provide Echo Boomers with a self-esteem boost, even if they don't act on it.

Acknowledgement

Some specific appreciate to all the people I've interviewed over the years when doing research along with links to the interviews:

Also, thank you to the other people I've interviewed about various health topics - Dr. Dan Eisenberg, Dr. Catherine Shanahan, Tom Naughton, Dr. Layne Norton, Christine Cronau, Dr. Lindsey Mathews, and Jessica Setnick.

Other Archived Posts:

Other Research

I continue to speak about Echo Boomers, iGenZ and AutoMons from time-to-time depending on the project.

If you are a researcher or work for a central bank, you can reach out about my Golden Sources research, which is research that I've been doing as a curiosity of mine for near two decades. Recently, this research has allowed me to also test data theories with various AI applications, such as large language models.

A Final Word of Gratitude

Thank you to all the people I've met over the years, as I've done research. The people I've met and interviewed, the people I've worked with on various studies, even the people in the studies themselves. To me there is nothing more exciting than hearing a person's story - it's more of an adventure than traveling to the coolest places. Thank you for sharing your life with me. I have been extremely careful to avoid ever storing identifiable information and looking only at patterns in a big picture sense because fundamentally I respect what you as an individual are willing to share publicly under your name. The biggest takeaway to any research is how people are the greatest work of art.

If you need help with research, you can reach out to my research firm, SqlinSix.

Monday, March 18, 2024

Mark the Plumber On Success, Work and Early Retirement

The responses to the interview questions may not represent the views of The Echo Boom Bomb's author. These interviews are provided to inform readers of information from experts and provide these experts with a medium where they can answer questions without any content changes. All linked material to products in interviews such as books or videos are affiliated with the supported platforms, such as Amazon or others. To see the full list of interviews related to Echo Boomers, iGenZ or Automons, see the ending acknowledgements on this post.

Background

A few years ago, I visited a store to search for an answer to my clogged drain. I ran into Mark, who became an instant friend and we've stayed connected since then. Mark had already retired from being a plumber and is one of the few Millennials I ever met who dropped out of high school.

One big difference with Mark that I shared with him was that he had much lower self-esteem than the average Millennial (a generation who were raised to think they were special). This actually worked to his advantage as you'll read and he and I both agree that his story shows that high self-esteem has little to do with success. Mark is a great guy, but he's not on social media because he doesn't think his life is that interesting to be on it. I love the self-honesty!

Interview notes. Mark read this interview prior to each question and answer being posted, as the only edits may be the way questions are answered and some words and word choices. In addition, because Mark and I stay in touch, I've added some questions to this interview over time that I find fascinating and worth knowing from him given his life experience.

Had To Ask...

While many Millennials piled into college (about 40-45%), you dropped out of high school during your freshman year and became a plumber. When we first met, your story differed significantly from many Millennials. What made you decide to drop out of high school and become a plumber?

I'm the dumber kid of my family. My brothers and sisters are much smarter than I am. My mom made sure that I knew this growing up. She used to tell me all the time that I wasn't going to add up to much because I learned really slow. I would read for five minutes and get bored and I really struggled with memorization. I could repeat something a hundred times and still not remember it. Some of it is that my mom is right and I am kind of slow when it comes to information. Some of it is also I hate learning stuff I don't use. I still don't know why I had to learn how to diagram a sentence. I have never used that and will never use that. I almost feel like school was killing time.

Before my freshman year, my friend's dad was a plumber and ran his own business. I wanted to learn so I asked if he could teach me and I'd be willing to do whatever. He was more than willing to teach me and he even started paying me for helping with his projects. My freshman year of high school continued to bore me so I had to decide between continuing to learn things I didn't want to know or make money that I could use. I saw immediate use for the money I was making, but I still don't know why I had to learn all the nonsense in school. So I dropped out. At the time, my mom used it as proof that I would never make it in life. She even told me that I would eventually realize that I had made the wrong choice. I didn't care because school was so boring and to this day, I don't regret it because I don't see how people who went to finished high school and went to college made a better choice than I did.

We've overvalued education to a point that it's become oversaturated. Historically, many kids would have been done with education at 12 and started working. Once you dropped out of high school, how were you able to manage working while your mom didn't approve?

I kind of lucked out the first year because my mom enjoyed telling me I was dumb and it stopped there. Since my friend's dad lived in our neighborhood, I worked as much as I could. I managed to make a good amount of money my first year but the real success was the experience I gained. I tried learning everything I could and it paid off big. By the end of my first year, I was able to take on challenging commercial projects - those are where we make good money. He would show me how he worked on a problem and I would jump on it. I kept feeling like the more I could do, the more I could make.

That's when my mom tried getting in the way and stopping me from continuing. Looking back, it's clear to me that she got angry when I started to out-earn her plus some of her friends were making comments about her having a high school dropout. She didn't like that and she tried to force me to go back to school. I was going to return to school and the situation got really bad. At one point, she physically attacked me to where it became noticeable to everyone. At least my mom realized that she crossed a line, but my friend's dad stepped in at that point and I was able to live with him. I planned to move out as soon as I could, but he was great because he told me that it made more sense to live with them until I was ready to be on my own. That allowed me to save a lot of money. To this day, I am grateful to him because he is the biggest reason for my success and he thinks I've alwasy been an amazing worker.

Mentors are key. Plus, you were able to work when Millennials were in high school and then some Millennials went to college. They were delaying pay while you were earning it. How were you able to eventually go into business for yourself?

I worked under my friend's dad for about seven years and would take on as many project as possible. He paid me extremely well, but we had very few plumbers in our area and few wanted to become a plumber, so the abundance of work allowed him to retire early. He wanted more freedom to travel, so his final year, he taught me more about the business, marketing and tax side of things. In thinking about it now, it's funny how I learned all this information about managing money for taxes, inventory and other related expenses, but we never discussed this stuff in school. It's so weird. What do people even do with all the stuff they learn in school? I still don't know. Like, when am I going to diagram a sentence as an adult?

After that, I was one of the few plumbers in the area and the demand was crazy. There was more projects than I had time. I tried hiring others, but what a nightmare! You and I have talked about this, but Millennials have no work ethic. They would get hired, work the first day, then call in sick and I wouldn't hear from them after a week. It was crazy. What's odd is that many of them would end up working a job that paid less, but it was some desk job. I do not understand someone who wants to get paid to sit around.

I struggled with hiring people for a while and finally gave up and am glad I did. I had to be honest with myself about how much work I could do and would do because I know I wasn't going to have help. I set higher prices and started making money good money plus was able to eliminate the projects that couldn't pay as much as I wanted. I retired before I turned 29, but even now I take some projects that I either enjoy or pay a rate that I'm willing to work. The difference is that instead of working 70-80 hour work weeks, I work about 10 hours a week overall and more important than that is I choose the projects that I want.

That's the part about your story that stuns our Millennial friends the most. They can't believe someone can retire at 29 without being a trust fund kid. I like to point out our friends that about a decade ago, I was speaking at a financial event and I asked the bankers in the room how many of them would be proud if their sons became plumbers or electricians. No one in the audience raised their hand. Yet all of them had used running water and electricity that day! Our generation (and iGenZ too), does not have any concept of what we're actually demanding daily versus what we're saying has value. This is the result - a job that's in a shortage even with high wages.

But you still have people who won't do the work even with high wages. I hired people who quit working and would go work for some other easier job making half the wages. It's like they prefer easy work even if the easy work doesn't pay much. I'll never forget this one guy I hired. He picked up what I taught him pretty quickly. But after a month, he didn't want to do the work anymore and he didn't show up or even call and say that he quit. I ran into him later and he told me he worked doing some security job where he'd sit at a desk all day. He made less than half what I was paying him, but he told me that his job was easier even when I asked him if he would want to come back and work. Most people didn't want to do the work and I discovered that I hated managing people.

Do You See the Theme Here?

Many Echo Boomers want an easy job, not a hard job even if the hard job pays really good wages that allows them freedom at a faster rate than their peers. Longtime readers will recall this pattern I noticed when I wrote "Give Us Facebook Or We'll Take A Lower Paying Job!" Echo Boomers are obssessed with their friends and getting attention from their friends. For these Echo Boomers making a higher income is less important than looking cool to others. This doesn't mean that these Echo Boomers will always think this way, but this early behavior influenced many of their decisions.

(Humorously, this is why you hear Echo Boomers always talk about how "I don't give a **** about what other people think". If a person actually believed this, then they would never state this.

What made me finally stop is I had a friend who was also struggling to hire people and one guy claimed that he was injured on the job and sued. That scared me because he had to go to court over the situation. Hiring people is a job in and of itself and I just didn't have time to do that plus balance work.

I'm lucky because when everyone needs a plumber and there aren't many plumbers, I could simply say no. In hindsight, that was a big part of how I was able to charge high prices and retire early. Even now, I can select the projects I want because there's still a shortage! Plus, I've worked with many people over the years who really value my work and know that I'll do well. Credibility is a big factor in plumbing.

Working in the right field was a big factor in your financial success. Saving money also sounds like it played a huge role in your financial success. What are some other things that played a role in your success?

When you work a lot, you save a lot because you don't have time to spend. Kind of the opposite of our friends who spent a year traveling and spent six figures doing so. I know they had fun, but now they feel like it set them back. I didn't have options like that because I had to work. I have been blessed with some great friends who pointed me to Dave Ramsey, so I was able to invest following his advice. At some point, you have to grow your wealth and I had enough saved early. Working many hours stops a lot of stupid financial decisions so that probably played the biggest role.

I also think in function and I think that helps grow wealth, even if it doesn't get a lot of attention. You and I have talked about how people love things that go up in price - houses, stocks, etc. But you love to say all the time that high price equals high risk unless that high price can be sustained. In addition to your thought, I also think people are forgetting functionality. A home is a place to live, not a hope of a future higher price. Some of the equipment I own serves a valuable function, plus the newer equipment is often poorer in quality because it needs servicing more. Some of my colleagues think this is a conspiracy and I don't, but I do think it shows why considering function in what you buy matters over whether the price will rise.

Now that I'm older, I think being single also did some as well. Plumbing is a mostly male profession and as I've met other plumbers outside my area, I've seen some nasty divorces. My friend's dad ended up going through one himself. To be honest with you, at one point I wanted to marry but I'm glad I never did. Many of my friends who didn't go to college are either divorced or their wives don't respect them at all. That's not to say my educated friends did better - they're just as likely to get divorced, I just know fewer of them.

See the Major Cost?

Mark is actually discussing what I've cautioned organizations about for over a decade. He's referencing the anti-male sentiment in the United States. Look at the cost.

This is a man who's had stable employment, ambition, and success. What kind of father would he have made? But he's not a father. A father with many kids is more likely to work more hours. Who benefits from that extra labor? People.

Meanwhile, you have a significant number of children who've had their dads abandon them. The anti-male sentiment only alienated the ambitious and driven men. Those ambitious men aren't staying in a country with an anti-male sentiment either, which means the cycle repeats. This also foreshadows what will happen with females too, as as college administrator noted to me a few years back that as male enrollments drop, female enrollments start to follow.

This is one of many reasons why I cautioned about US males dumping marriage. I was not warning about marriage rates so much as I was warning about a bigger social phenomena that was far more concerning. Don't confuse the result with the problem that led to the result.

Maybe this bugs me because my mom always thought I was dumb, but I don't enjoy being around people who don't respect me as a person. Even when I've dated girls in the past, they would ask me what I really wanted to do, as if there was something wrong with plumbing. Or I've had girls who asked me if I would go back to school almost like they were saying there's something wrong with not graduating high school.

I've know a few psychologists who claim that women are generally more concerned with other people's perception than men. Education can also make people feel superior in some cases. Given that many Millennial women are highly educated (compared to Millennial men), I am not surprised you saw that pattern.

All of my teachers in high school and junior high were all women and I don't think any of them thought I was very smart. I can remember a few who agreed with my mom in that they thought I was dumb. I don't think I was ever cut out for education because I'm a D or F student at best. I remember one teacher asking me that, "Do you want to be a D student the rest of your life?" But I also don't get what we were even learning most of the time or why I would care. Women seem to enjoy that more too, like all the girls in my class would answer the questions while I was wondering why did anyone care. Trivia bores the heck out of me.

It may be because I work with a lot of men that I don't really value or need to know things I don't need to know, if that makes sense. I can't think of any conversation I've had with other men in my work where random trivia came up. No offense to the men who are educated, but they're the only ones I know who sit around and talk about this stuff. I don't need to know that you can manufacture and ship good easier by the Rhine River than by wherever because I don't work in manufacturing and I don't plan to. It's not important. Men seem to only say what's necessary when I'm working whereas women share lots of details about whatever the situation is.

You highlight a big problem with modern education that's impacting male enrollments in education - missing men. That's part of why education has lost men and I've been warning institutions about this for a while. Men don't see male teachers and assume education isn't for them. I once attended an event at a public high school that had 0 male teachers. In school pictures, over half the students were young men. Regardless, right now the blue collar world is great for men plus it's in high demand. Like you said, no one wants to do physical work anymore so you have little competition. What advice would you suggest for young men interested in blue collar fields?

Honestly, be willing to do the work. That's rare. There's probably a lot of people willing to show you how to do the work, but it's a waste of time to invest in someone who quits after a week or two. I have a lot of respect for people who hire people, but I would never go back to that. I hated it. I did work recently with a young man, but the big reason was that I didn't need to teach him much, I could just tell him what needed to be done and he would do it. That and he was the son of the business owner. Like I said about my friend's lawsuit, I wouldn't hire people because of all the legal stuff. Lawsuits are no joke.

Be enthusiastic about learning new things related to the job. It's so easy to each people something when they're excited about it. My friend's dad told me early on that I was extremely easy to teach because I wanted to learn. For me, I felt like plumbing was my only path to a good life so I had to learn it. I didn't have options. My brothers and sisters are much smarter than I am and have many options to succeed. I didn't! But now that I think about it, if you want to learn and show enthusiasm, you become easy to teach.

Shifting a bit - what do you think about artificial intelligence (AI) and are you seeing it impact your industry since you still do some projects?

You'll have to ask the tech guys about AI. I don't get it. Tech people talk a language that I don't understand. They speak like they're constantly improving the world, yet I haven't seen much improvements. Plumbing equipment is much more expensive than when I started - luckily I saved and purchased a lot of my tools and equipment, as the these have appreciated more than any savings' account did. Health care, as you know, is extremely expensive. Every year, they try to create new things we have to do for business. What's improving? I haven't noticed it, but then, I don't use a lot of technology because all I see are people wasting time while calling themselves productive.

From my "dumb" view, a robot will have to be cheaper than a plumber. People don't have that much money too, so if AI replaces all the jobs, where will people get money to hire a plumber? I already don't do projects that don't pay enough.

I find it hard to believe that robots will be cheap when all my equipment gets more expensive every year. What are these robots made of? Paper? Plumbing isn't as easy as you'd think. The robot has to be able to solve the problem, plus do it at a cheaper rate. I don't see that happening anytime soon because we can negotiate wages, whereas a robot will have a point where it can't do the work and provide a good return to the business.

To give you a related example, I face this already with some tools. If I invest $2,000 in a tool, then I need to ensure that I'll get well over that amount in use of that tool. This is why I don't take on some projects: I would need better equipment. But that equipment costs a lot of money and I know that those projects seldom arise. That's not worth it now. In the past, I took that risk because I was new and didn't understand this concept, plus some of the equipment has appreciated. But all equipment has to be maintained too. Do I want to use even some of the equipment I have now knowing the maintenance costs compared to the return I get with the few clients I take now? No.

I may sound dumb here, but I don't see how a robot will be any different. You have to get a return higher than the robot's costs along with the maintenance it will require.

You're observing the hammer-and-nail pattern of human behavior here. People who don't understand details thinking that their hammer can solve every problem. And related to technology, you're still not on social media, so people can't find you anywhere?

You have to think your life is interesting to be on social media. I honestly don't get that stuff. I'm not a smart guy so anything I have to say or show isn't that interesting. Plus you know this - I'm a flesh-and-blood guy. All of you with your Facebook friends, not for me. People have to be present with me and can't take shortcuts if they want to hang out.

If you ever join, I'll be sure to add your information here. I will note to you that many of the people I interviewed no longer are present on social media or their site. I never really thought the internet had much value outside of sharing information. I still think that. The whole social concept confused me and I think most people will do what you do in the long run, it will just take them longer to do it.