Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.
Will Fewer Echo Boomers Marry Than Not Marry?
According to a Pew [updated link, but data set may not be available] study only 21% of Echo Boomers are married as of 2009. I am currently in a 31 day study of counting married Echo Boomers I speak with (right now, the average is at 22% among the ages of 18-31). While marriage, as an institution, will never end, I expect that the United States will experience record low marriage rates (compared to previous American generations) among the Millennial generation for a few reasons.
1. If you look at the age group I'm dealing with (18-31), you'll notice that there are 6 years above 25 within that group, and 7 years below 25. Both my current numbers and the Pew study state that only 21% of Echo Boomers are married with my study narrowing the age range. Even if marriage rates tripled among this generation that would only mean that 63-66% of Echo Boomers would be married. That would mean that 37-34% of Echo Boomers would never marry. From the GSS data that I can recall in college, in former generations, about 20-25% of former generations never married. In other words, even if marriage rates triple, the Millennial generation would still possess the most never married group of members in U.S. history.
2. Obviously, Echo Boomers have witnessed divorce more than former generations, and might be reluctant to marry. While I avoid leading with topics like this when speaking with Echo Boomers, I've heard many Echo Boomers express concern about divorce as a reason to avoid marriage. (They raise this point and it's worth considering that they notice the divorce rate.) The main reason to avoid marriage that Echo Boomers list, however, is financial concerns, but divorce can quickly change a person's financial standing.
On a point I often raise when speaking to thought leaders in the legal profession: marketing products around divorce prevention has worked better with Millennial men than other generations of men. I recognize the challenge of this marketing ("preventable products" are a hard sell) and I also recognize the legal complexity. However, a young man who pays $200 to listen to an attorney tell actual stories of divorce that save him $180,000 from an expensive divorce is well worth the cost.
3. The Millennial generation has more single parents than former generations, and this will encumber marriage consideration. Notice that in this study [Update: dead link removed] some Echo Boomers have delayed marriage consideration due to the economic conditions. Obviously, finances are a concern for many Echo Boomers, and marrying someone, who already has kids will add to a person's economic stress.
None of this is illogical; obviously children are more expensive in terms of finances and time than some homes are, so avoiding marriage in these situations can alleviate or prevent financial stress. Echo Boomers, unlike their parents, are inheriting a country with a massive amount of debt and a significant amount of economic uncertainty.
Here's what I expect for the future of marriage rates in the United States:
The United States will look more like Europe and Japan in the Millennial generation; low marriage rates and changing economic demand. I estimate that 33-40% of Echo Boomers will never marry in the United States. The majority of Echo Boomers will marry, but we'll see more single Americans than we have with past American generations.
Remember, this will carry some upside for some companies and individuals! Some successful future companies will succeed by finding products and services that these singles will want. For an example of this, if the United States mirrors Japan, some trends Japan is seeing among its young men [updated link] may be products that can appeal to these single Echo Boomers in the United States (or a current example in the U.S. already: the fitness industry tends to appeal to single Echo Boomers over married Echo Boomers). The same with any company selling dating-related products; this generation will date much more.
Highlights Shared With Thought Leaders On Consequences
First, we'll see positives due to the rise of more single men and women. Housing and rental demand will be much higher, as marriage consolidates housing demand (2 people getting 1 home versus 2 people getting 2 homes). Anything that feeds the dating market - fitness, dating coaches, pickup artists, dating products, etc - will also become popular. We may even see the rise of new products because past American generations were married, so no one thought of business products for single people since this market would be smaller. In addition, niche marketing becomes easier. Selling to married people significantly differs from selling to single men and women; in other words, it will be even easier to sell to married people because of each category being different.
As for the costs, societies with fewer married people tend to be more violent. If you study marriage through human history, then you'll observe that some of its stated benefits through history has been a form of social control. Modern Americans like to think this only applies to one gender, but both genders are actually controlled by marriage in society. These expectations have both positive and negative effects. One major positive effect that cannot be ignored is that married people commit far fewer crimes than single people (even non-violent crimes, like fraud).
In a similar manner, single people work less than married people. Researchers tend to see this pattern significantly in men, but in my research, I've seen it as much in women (though married men do work significantly more than every other group - married women, single men, and single men). What does this mean? In a sentence: married people are more productive and our standard of living is determined by our society's productivity.
Another often-missed pattern of married people is that they create more social cohesion. One reason why is that when comparing single people with married people, married people are more likely to commit and invest in a place than single people. In other words, married people are more likely to stay in their community and get to know their community than single people. (In fact, married people describe "moving" as a difficult challenge compared to single people and the reasoning isn't only related to more family members, but losing connections to their current community).
I cannot absolutely know what will happen in the future. But if I had to predict the future United States I would predict that it would be more violent than now, less productive than now, more on an unsustainable economic path than now, and more socially fragmented than now.
But this may not happen. Echo Boomers may marry more than I expect and we may see some of these trends reverse. That's not what I predict for this generation, but it's not impossible.
