Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.
During my junior year at university, I listened to a social psychology professor discuss a new trend that was beginning to emerge called serial monogamy. He pointed out that in the past people married for life, but that as time went on, this lifetime view of marriage had become impractical. What someone needs in their life in their twenties might be very different than what they need in their forties, for instance, and thus we shouldn't expect to see the long term relationships of our grandparents.
And along came Echo Boomers.
So Long Marriage?
Look at the Pew Research Data:
[Update: dead image]. Image showed 21% of Echo Boomers married.
And from my own short study, I confirmed Pew's numbers - 21% of the Echo Boomers I communicated with were married.
Notice that in the Pew Research Data when the age range of each Generation was 18-29, 29% of Generation Xers were married, 42% of Baby Boomers were married, and 54% of the Silent Generation were married. As they aged, 64% of Generation Xers married, 67% of Baby Boomers married, and 57% of the Silent Generation married (notice the large number of widowed individuals in this generation due to its age). Yet 21% of Echo Boomers are married and their current age range is between 16-31. The numbers seem to indicate that the Millennial generation won't marry like its parents and grandparents.
The Millennial generation dislikes marriag, and even if they marry, Echo Boomers see divorce as convenient exit. While traditionalists may bemoan these trends, we are seeing exactly what my professor mentioned: the view of relationships is no longer a lifetime commitment, but a periodic partnership.
Pertinent Side Note:
I've noted 4 major reasons why Generation Y won't marry like other generations:
1. Even if marriage rates tripled, Echo Boomers would still have the highest non-married rate of any generation.
2. Echo Boomers have seen more divorce than other generations and will be more reluctant to marry.
3. Single parents pose a problem for those seeking to marry; how many non-parents will be open to marrying a parent?
4. More single people mean more option, plus it changes the attitude of not having a seat when the music stops.
Still, Echo Boomers may change their opinion about marriage and marry much later, even if I don't see this happening.
"Let's [Date/See Each Other/Hook-Up/Move-In/Marry]" ... For Now
Many relationships seem to be based on emotional circumstances today, though emotions often ebb and flow unbeknownst to the one experiencing the emotion. If people base their relationship off feelings solely, and not on logical factors, we should find short-lived relationships no surprise.
"Yeah, I'm married, at least for now. I'm not sure if I'll continue this marriage five years from now," one Echo Boomer said when we discussed future financial goals. "To be honest, I needed it at the time because one of my parents died, and opening up to someone made a lot of sense, but not so much anymore."
In other words, this Echo Boomer sees relationships as a way to meet emotional needs during certain seasons of life, but as those seasons change, the relationship no longer makes sense. In addition, as she mentioned later the legal system makes it easy to divorce. Since her husband made more money and had more money than she did, she will probably also end up getting some extra funds as well when she terminates the divorce. I've spoken with many Echo Boomers who stayed in a marriage long enough to collect alimony and even told me that they had set out to do just that from the beginning.
Some in the Millennial generation are more casual than that, though. "Ehh, I'd just prefer to hook-up for a few months and then be done with it," another Echo Boomer said as we discussed what our hobbies were. "My parents were too unhappy when I grew up and I don't want that." Make no mistake, this Echo Boomer, like others, still sees emotional value in having fun for a while, but exiting when it becomes stable and patterned.
These stories have not been unusual since I started studying the Millennial generation in a financial manner. Relationships come up (in rapport-building questions), and the responses toward major relationships are always casual. Even in a face-to-face manner, Echo Boomers often deny interest in long-term relationships, though this can sometimes be an attempt to play off their desires (a lesson in statistics that many won't teach you in a statistics class is that people are often unaware of what they want and what they do; for instance, people report spending their money in one way, while an audit would show the opposite.
Of course, a few Echo Boomers still report wanting to be married for life. "That's my major goal," one said, "I'm just beginning to doubt that it will ever happen." And for those who actually want a lifetime commitment, they must realize that their peers may not.
What Socioeconomic Trends Do You See In the Future?
Of course, any prediction can fail to come true. Echo Boomers might end up with a higher marriage rate than any other American generation. Or, they may end up with the highest divorce rate. Or they may end up with neither. However, based on the current data, trends and anecdotes, I predict:
1. 33-40% of Echo Boomers will never marry (this only pertains to straight marriages; I do not know, if legal, how many gay marriages would occur due to insufficient data).
2. Of the Echo Boomers who marry (60-67%), they will have a higher divorce rate than previous generations. Remember, that subsequent marriages are included in this: if an Echo Boomer marries once, then divorces, marries twice, then divorces, marries a third time, and remains married, that would count as three marriages and two divorces (a divorce rate of 67% for applied mathematicians; 66.66666666% for theoretical mathematicians).
3. Since fewer Echo Boomers will marry, I'd expect that marital problems, like infidelity, psychological abuse and relational conflicts will increase because a large portion of Generation Y will be single. Do single individuals respect institutions like marriage if they are not a part of it (some might, some might not)? Add to that fact that single individuals often engage in different activities than married individuals, but married individuals may still have a mix of married and single friends.
[Update: dead image]
4. Male Echo Boomers will be more likely to move away from cities than former generations of males. To be fair, I've already noted this trend (it also has happened in Japan). At this present time, however, I'd expect most male Echo Boomers to stay in the cities for educational purposes, but post-education, some of them will exit and join rural communities or they will leave the United States. Now consider that in order to lower marriage rates (among heterosexuals), all you need is fewer members of one gender in a social community. As for the male Echo Boomers who start their life in another country, I have no predictions for this group, as the incentives I'm discussing only exist in the United States.
Any Business Opportunities or Perils For the Future?
[Update: dead image]
Any business that requires marriages to exist, such as marital law, family counseling or engagement jewelry, will be impacted. While those industries may do well with the Echo Boomers who marry, the amount of businesses that will do well will decrease. The industries will become increasingly competitive, though it will be easier to determine who will marry, so marketing overall will be cheaper.
In the meantime, businesses that sell products to single female Echo Boomers and single male Echo Boomers will see the most growth.
