Showing posts with label Sociocultural Trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sociocultural Trends. Show all posts

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Generation Y Fails In Privacy; 3 Reasons Why

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

Critics of Generation Y level statements that tend to be true about young people in general; for instance, young people tend to be entitled, and Echo Boomers certainly are. One criticism of Generation Y that I would offer, though seldom mentioned by critics, is disrespecting privacy. An article on IT rules briefly mentions this from a study:

Even worse, one out of three college students revealed that they do not think about privacy nor do they mind sharing personal data online. These respondents also said that they believe that privacy boundaries are loosening.

Yet, one in four experience identity theft before the age of 30, while at least two out of five college students know of friends or family members who have experienced identity theft.

"To us, there is a disconnect here that people are sharing so much but they're seeing grave consequences," Olechowski said.

Based on observations (my own and others), I would adduce that some Echo Boomers either take their privacy for granted, or fail to understand the importance of privacy. This social trend is new as privacy has historically been a right that Americans value. On top of that, philosophers throughout history (Solomon, Plato, Nietzsche, Tzu) advise reticence.

Humorous Story

A while ago I watched Into the Wild with friends and their takeaway of the movie was to share experiences with others. Obviously there is some truth to this, but this can also be taken too far. Echo Boomers love this movie because it justifies their social media attention craze - "I'm sharing my experiences with others!" In most cases, they really value attention. Think about activities that Echo Boomers don't share and it's often because it doesn't get attention or it gets the wrong kind of attention.

For people who've traveled to other cultures, they see this contrast. In the US, you show off as much as you have - and Echo Boomers take this very far. However, this could get you killed in other countries. If you have resources, you live as if you don't have resources. You also don't overshare details because this could also endanger you (or be misinterpreted). The reason why I bring this up is that Echo Boomers will often state, "Everyone wants attention." This is completely false! There are many people who want to stay far away from attention.

Why Echo Boomers Don't Value Privacy

So why do Echo Boomers share so much personal information and fail to respect their own and others' privacy? 3 possible reasons:

  1. Information is being used as a way to obtain mass attention (ie: "attention-whoring"), not necessarily to inform people of something valuable (ie: "Facebook IPO set at $[x] billion").

  2. Assuming the previous reason, this would mean that private information would receive more attention than common information. For instance, seeing something unusual at the mall is less amazing than engaging in borderline illegal behavior. The latter, in the past, might remain unmentioned, but in a world where everyone is shouting at the top of their lungs for attention, the latter stands out. In a battle for attention, you got to stand out!

  3. Assuming the previous two reasons, value is perceived as a concept determined solely by others. For instance, if most of your friends think your experience was awesome, it's awesome, even if you didn't necessarily think your experience was awesome. In other words, you don't determine value; others determine value for you (based on popularity). Technology changes the dimension of social relationships, and privacy (like empathy) is one of those factors. I realize this is an extremely philosophical point but if you stop and think about this point, it has powerful indications about Echo Boomers (and value in general).

I'm not writing that any of these are true in objective reality. These are how Echo Boomers see privacy - they don't value it. Privacy to an Echo Boomer is a lack of attention. They want attention! They're concept of value is centered around what other people value. This is why attention whoring is so popular among Echo Boomers.

What Will This Mean For Businesses?

What this means going forward is that Echo Boomers are going to think that others' business is their business. This won't only affect laws, it will affect businesses. Echo Boomers won't think that your business should be private, especially if they think their peers should know. They will make moral judgements on the basis of what their peers think. This also will affect Echo Boomers themselves because their peers' view of what they do will affect their own view. Suppose that an Echo Boomer has an amazing night but his friends think he wasted his time. His view will change because of how his peers think, not because of what he thinks. Therefore, it's not what an Echo Boomer thinks about your product, it's what Echo Boomers think about your product.

This is why social media use is so popular with Echo Boomers - they are very concerned with what their peers value. A generation that cares little about what others think would rarely share their life. This is both positive and negative. On the one hand, this could be extremely negative for businesses when it comes to protecting private information. On the positive, you only need to get so many Echo Boomers vocal about your product before they share it with their network and convince other Echo Boomers it has value.

As to how this all plays out in the long run, see the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union from history.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Do Echo Boomers Want Money, Sex or Self-Esteem Boosts?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

A humorous Monday article on what the Millennial generation prefers.

The Highest Reward

Echo Boomers [updated link] apparently will take a self-esteem boost over money, food and sex. Granted, studies like this can be heavily affected by the survey's wording (ie: "your preferred self-esteem boost"). Some thoughts before taking away anything from this survey:

1. A self-esteem boost could be any number of things. Echo Boomers might think of a raise as a self-esteem boost, in which case they would be making more money. They may also see hooking up with a hot boy/girl as a self-esteem boost. Notice how alcohol consumption scored very low - this of all the options would have the lowest affect on an Echo Boomer's self-esteem (or so I would imagine). However, an Echo Boomer's favorite self-esteem boost still beats more money, sex, etc.

2. The article highlights the repeated point that Echo Boomers are the trophy generation. Echo Boomers grew accustomed to receiving feedback on a regular basis and Penelope Trunk has noted this as well - Echo Boomers love feedback.

In interacting with thousands of Echo Boomers, I have observed that they highly value verbal positive feedback over many other forms of praise and they like this praise public. The more public you make the praise, the more rewarding it is for them. In a few tests that I've done, I noticed that public praise beat actual rewards like gift cards. This does align with them receiving participation trophies when they were younger and being praised for participating in sports, even if they didn't win anything.

3. Businesses and employers have a variety of ways to use this. Don't assume that traditional rewards will affect Echo Boomers in the same way that they would affect Generation X or Baby Boomers. One tip for readers I advise business leaders: start with public praise and evaluate the results. You may not need further rewards with Echo Boomers.

4. This does not apply to all Echo Boomers. Male Echo Boomers, especially married males, show a tendency for traditional rewards (higher pay, etc) because they have more responsibilities. "Feeling good from praise" doesn't pay bills or help your kids go to college.

Don't Miss the Behavioral Pattern

As I repeat multiple times when speaking about Echo Boomers, this generation obsesses over attention and validation from others. This differs from Baby Boomers, who wanted to move out in the middle of nowhere and do their thing and Generation Xers who were abandoned by everyone and sought an "I-can-get-it-done" attitude without help. (This is why I chuckle when Echo Boomers tell me, "Everyone wants attention." Actually, no. Some people do not and also understand its dangers.)

Echo Boomers make a daily choice to overshare their life. Why? They need someone to like it! Think about how many activities that you've done that none of your friends would like? Echo Boomers would feel horrified at the thought of doing things their friends don't like or envy. This is why Echo Boomers love social media. They want praise and a "like" or "positive comment" rewards them in their special way.

Monday, September 26, 2011

The Internet Beats Dating, Partying, Status Symbols

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

After a few serious weeks covering Echo Boomers [updated link], it's time for a funny article about the Millennial generation.

For Generation Y, the internet ranks as most important, according to an article [Update: dead link removed], over things like partying, dating, going out with friends or even status symbols (like cars). Get this: over half of respondents - college students and young professionals - stated that they could not live without the internet. Obviously, every non-Millennial knows that we all can live without the internet and some older individuals spent most of their life without it.

Remember that Facebook will assimilate you:

More than one in four (27 per cent) college students will rather update their Facebook account than to hang out with friends.

Note that nine of 10 of these students have a Facebook account — of those, 81 per cent check it daily and 33 per cent at least five times a day.

Mark Zuckerberg must absolutely love this generation.

The funny thing about this is that I still recall the time when the internet was only for nerds. In high school, surfing the internet was "not cool," in the same way that having a website, knowing what "www" meant, or having an email account was "not cool." Yet now, 90% of students have Facebook accounts, and I'm sure that trend will continue to rise across the Millennial generation.

This isn't to say that Echo Boomers will always feel this way. They may look back at their time spent on the internet as waste in the future, but for now, they're obsessed. For iGenZ, they only know of a world with the internet and we'll see how that affects their mindset and activities.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Are We Seeing the Rise of Relationship Quickies?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

During my junior year at university, I listened to a social psychology professor discuss a new trend that was beginning to emerge called serial monogamy. He pointed out that in the past people married for life, but that as time went on, this lifetime view of marriage had become impractical. What someone needs in their life in their twenties might be very different than what they need in their forties, for instance, and thus we shouldn't expect to see the long term relationships of our grandparents.

And along came Echo Boomers.

So Long Marriage?

Look at the Pew Research Data:

[Update: dead image]. Image showed 21% of Echo Boomers married.

And from my own short study, I confirmed Pew's numbers - 21% of the Echo Boomers I communicated with were married.

Notice that in the Pew Research Data when the age range of each Generation was 18-29, 29% of Generation Xers were married, 42% of Baby Boomers were married, and 54% of the Silent Generation were married. As they aged, 64% of Generation Xers married, 67% of Baby Boomers married, and 57% of the Silent Generation married (notice the large number of widowed individuals in this generation due to its age). Yet 21% of Echo Boomers are married and their current age range is between 16-31. The numbers seem to indicate that the Millennial generation won't marry like its parents and grandparents.

The Millennial generation dislikes marriag, and even if they marry, Echo Boomers see divorce as convenient exit. While traditionalists may bemoan these trends, we are seeing exactly what my professor mentioned: the view of relationships is no longer a lifetime commitment, but a periodic partnership.

Pertinent Side Note:

I've noted 4 major reasons why Generation Y won't marry like other generations:

1. Even if marriage rates tripled, Echo Boomers would still have the highest non-married rate of any generation.

2. Echo Boomers have seen more divorce than other generations and will be more reluctant to marry.

3. Single parents pose a problem for those seeking to marry; how many non-parents will be open to marrying a parent?

4. More single people mean more option, plus it changes the attitude of not having a seat when the music stops.

Still, Echo Boomers may change their opinion about marriage and marry much later, even if I don't see this happening.

"Let's [Date/See Each Other/Hook-Up/Move-In/Marry]" ... For Now

Many relationships seem to be based on emotional circumstances today, though emotions often ebb and flow unbeknownst to the one experiencing the emotion. If people base their relationship off feelings solely, and not on logical factors, we should find short-lived relationships no surprise.

"Yeah, I'm married, at least for now. I'm not sure if I'll continue this marriage five years from now," one Echo Boomer said when we discussed future financial goals. "To be honest, I needed it at the time because one of my parents died, and opening up to someone made a lot of sense, but not so much anymore."

In other words, this Echo Boomer sees relationships as a way to meet emotional needs during certain seasons of life, but as those seasons change, the relationship no longer makes sense. In addition, as she mentioned later the legal system makes it easy to divorce. Since her husband made more money and had more money than she did, she will probably also end up getting some extra funds as well when she terminates the divorce. I've spoken with many Echo Boomers who stayed in a marriage long enough to collect alimony and even told me that they had set out to do just that from the beginning.

Some in the Millennial generation are more casual than that, though. "Ehh, I'd just prefer to hook-up for a few months and then be done with it," another Echo Boomer said as we discussed what our hobbies were. "My parents were too unhappy when I grew up and I don't want that." Make no mistake, this Echo Boomer, like others, still sees emotional value in having fun for a while, but exiting when it becomes stable and patterned.

These stories have not been unusual since I started studying the Millennial generation in a financial manner. Relationships come up (in rapport-building questions), and the responses toward major relationships are always casual. Even in a face-to-face manner, Echo Boomers often deny interest in long-term relationships, though this can sometimes be an attempt to play off their desires (a lesson in statistics that many won't teach you in a statistics class is that people are often unaware of what they want and what they do; for instance, people report spending their money in one way, while an audit would show the opposite.

Of course, a few Echo Boomers still report wanting to be married for life. "That's my major goal," one said, "I'm just beginning to doubt that it will ever happen." And for those who actually want a lifetime commitment, they must realize that their peers may not.

What Socioeconomic Trends Do You See In the Future?

Of course, any prediction can fail to come true. Echo Boomers might end up with a higher marriage rate than any other American generation. Or, they may end up with the highest divorce rate. Or they may end up with neither. However, based on the current data, trends and anecdotes, I predict:

1. 33-40% of Echo Boomers will never marry (this only pertains to straight marriages; I do not know, if legal, how many gay marriages would occur due to insufficient data).

2. Of the Echo Boomers who marry (60-67%), they will have a higher divorce rate than previous generations. Remember, that subsequent marriages are included in this: if an Echo Boomer marries once, then divorces, marries twice, then divorces, marries a third time, and remains married, that would count as three marriages and two divorces (a divorce rate of 67% for applied mathematicians; 66.66666666% for theoretical mathematicians).

3. Since fewer Echo Boomers will marry, I'd expect that marital problems, like infidelity, psychological abuse and relational conflicts will increase because a large portion of Generation Y will be single. Do single individuals respect institutions like marriage if they are not a part of it (some might, some might not)? Add to that fact that single individuals often engage in different activities than married individuals, but married individuals may still have a mix of married and single friends.

[Update: dead image]

4. Male Echo Boomers will be more likely to move away from cities than former generations of males. To be fair, I've already noted this trend (it also has happened in Japan). At this present time, however, I'd expect most male Echo Boomers to stay in the cities for educational purposes, but post-education, some of them will exit and join rural communities or they will leave the United States. Now consider that in order to lower marriage rates (among heterosexuals), all you need is fewer members of one gender in a social community. As for the male Echo Boomers who start their life in another country, I have no predictions for this group, as the incentives I'm discussing only exist in the United States.

Any Business Opportunities or Perils For the Future?

[Update: dead image]

Any business that requires marriages to exist, such as marital law, family counseling or engagement jewelry, will be impacted. While those industries may do well with the Echo Boomers who marry, the amount of businesses that will do well will decrease. The industries will become increasingly competitive, though it will be easier to determine who will marry, so marketing overall will be cheaper.

In the meantime, businesses that sell products to single female Echo Boomers and single male Echo Boomers will see the most growth.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Will Marriage Become A Minority?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

Will Fewer Echo Boomers Marry Than Not Marry?

According to a Pew [updated link, but data set may not be available] study only 21% of Echo Boomers are married as of 2009. I am currently in a 31 day study of counting married Echo Boomers I speak with (right now, the average is at 22% among the ages of 18-31). While marriage, as an institution, will never end, I expect that the United States will experience record low marriage rates (compared to previous American generations) among the Millennial generation for a few reasons.

1. If you look at the age group I'm dealing with (18-31), you'll notice that there are 6 years above 25 within that group, and 7 years below 25. Both my current numbers and the Pew study state that only 21% of Echo Boomers are married with my study narrowing the age range. Even if marriage rates tripled among this generation that would only mean that 63-66% of Echo Boomers would be married. That would mean that 37-34% of Echo Boomers would never marry. From the GSS data that I can recall in college, in former generations, about 20-25% of former generations never married. In other words, even if marriage rates triple, the Millennial generation would still possess the most never married group of members in U.S. history.

2. Obviously, Echo Boomers have witnessed divorce more than former generations, and might be reluctant to marry. While I avoid leading with topics like this when speaking with Echo Boomers, I've heard many Echo Boomers express concern about divorce as a reason to avoid marriage. (They raise this point and it's worth considering that they notice the divorce rate.) The main reason to avoid marriage that Echo Boomers list, however, is financial concerns, but divorce can quickly change a person's financial standing.

On a point I often raise when speaking to thought leaders in the legal profession: marketing products around divorce prevention has worked better with Millennial men than other generations of men. I recognize the challenge of this marketing ("preventable products" are a hard sell) and I also recognize the legal complexity. However, a young man who pays $200 to listen to an attorney tell actual stories of divorce that save him $180,000 from an expensive divorce is well worth the cost.

3. The Millennial generation has more single parents than former generations, and this will encumber marriage consideration. Notice that in this study [Update: dead link removed] some Echo Boomers have delayed marriage consideration due to the economic conditions. Obviously, finances are a concern for many Echo Boomers, and marrying someone, who already has kids will add to a person's economic stress.

None of this is illogical; obviously children are more expensive in terms of finances and time than some homes are, so avoiding marriage in these situations can alleviate or prevent financial stress. Echo Boomers, unlike their parents, are inheriting a country with a massive amount of debt and a significant amount of economic uncertainty.

Here's what I expect for the future of marriage rates in the United States:

The United States will look more like Europe and Japan in the Millennial generation; low marriage rates and changing economic demand. I estimate that 33-40% of Echo Boomers will never marry in the United States. The majority of Echo Boomers will marry, but we'll see more single Americans than we have with past American generations.

Remember, this will carry some upside for some companies and individuals! Some successful future companies will succeed by finding products and services that these singles will want. For an example of this, if the United States mirrors Japan, some trends Japan is seeing among its young men [updated link] may be products that can appeal to these single Echo Boomers in the United States (or a current example in the U.S. already: the fitness industry tends to appeal to single Echo Boomers over married Echo Boomers). The same with any company selling dating-related products; this generation will date much more.

Highlights Shared With Thought Leaders On Consequences

First, we'll see positives due to the rise of more single men and women. Housing and rental demand will be much higher, as marriage consolidates housing demand (2 people getting 1 home versus 2 people getting 2 homes). Anything that feeds the dating market - fitness, dating coaches, pickup artists, dating products, etc - will also become popular. We may even see the rise of new products because past American generations were married, so no one thought of business products for single people since this market would be smaller. In addition, niche marketing becomes easier. Selling to married people significantly differs from selling to single men and women; in other words, it will be even easier to sell to married people because of each category being different.

As for the costs, societies with fewer married people tend to be more violent. If you study marriage through human history, then you'll observe that some of its stated benefits through history has been a form of social control. Modern Americans like to think this only applies to one gender, but both genders are actually controlled by marriage in society. These expectations have both positive and negative effects. One major positive effect that cannot be ignored is that married people commit far fewer crimes than single people (even non-violent crimes, like fraud).

In a similar manner, single people work less than married people. Researchers tend to see this pattern significantly in men, but in my research, I've seen it as much in women (though married men do work significantly more than every other group - married women, single men, and single men). What does this mean? In a sentence: married people are more productive and our standard of living is determined by our society's productivity.

Another often-missed pattern of married people is that they create more social cohesion. One reason why is that when comparing single people with married people, married people are more likely to commit and invest in a place than single people. In other words, married people are more likely to stay in their community and get to know their community than single people. (In fact, married people describe "moving" as a difficult challenge compared to single people and the reasoning isn't only related to more family members, but losing connections to their current community).

I cannot absolutely know what will happen in the future. But if I had to predict the future United States I would predict that it would be more violent than now, less productive than now, more on an unsustainable economic path than now, and more socially fragmented than now.

But this may not happen. Echo Boomers may marry more than I expect and we may see some of these trends reverse. That's not what I predict for this generation, but it's not impossible.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Will Low Marriage Rates Sap Future Housing Demand?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

As an Echo Boomer, I often hear from adults that the lack of interest in marriage among Echo Boomers will suppress housing demand. In fact, a recent study [Update: dead link removed] has been used by some adults as evidence that Echo Boomers will have low marriage rates, and thus a low demand for housing.

First, I've written about the housing recovery and will write more in the future with pertinent economic data. Frankly, marriage rates of Echo Boomers are far less of a concern than the Millennial financial data. This is not a generation that looks prepared to own homes.

Second, female Echo Boomers that are unable to find partners tend to express interest in owning a home later in life regardless of their marital status. Male Echo Boomers, by contrast, do seem satisfied with renting. My point here is that even if all Echo Boomers stayed single (already untrue), and most female Echo Boomers bought homes and most male Echo Boomers rented, you'd still end up with similar numbers for housing demand in the future plus you'd have added rent on top of that. More single men and women mean more demand for housing in general, though this demand will be for both homes and places to rent (apartments, condos, etc).

Remember that a large generation with more single people will require more housing in general of any type.

Third, marriage doesn't equate to home ownership. Although married Echo Boomers I speak with tend to mention interest in owning homes more than single Echo Boomers, a few single Echo Boomers have already achieved home ownership.