I am not interested in politics nor political discussions. Do not reach out about any political topic nor reach out about marketing for politics.
I have used several techniques to attempt to predict the US presidential election in the past starting in 2012. Unfortunately, these data tend to heavily emphasize the predicted popular vote using several measures. This is not always the person who wins (ie: my methodology probably would have predicted that Gore would have won in 2000, which would have been wrong). Since I enjoy testing data theories around how to research populations, politics makes an interesting example of this. This is the extent of my interest. In general my methodology will never exceed 75% in accuracy for presidential elections because it does not account for the electoral college and it can come up short with extremely tight races.
2012 Prediction: Obama
2016 Prediction: Clinton
2020 Prediction: Biden
2024 Prediction: Democrat candidate (Biden at this time - June 2024; Harris at this time - July 2024 - or whoever the Democrat candidate ends up being in November)
Texas Will Be Blue
One political prediction I make outside of the above presidential prediction is that Texas will eventually be a blue state. This will destroy property values and businesses, as Texas was a blue state in the 1980s and they were giving away free land. No one wanted it. Texas was a completely worthless state then. California is only beginning to enter this phase; I know cities that have considered giving away free properties or giving up to an amount of money for people to buy properties. How can a place as beautiful as California be so terrible to live? Ironically, Texas is welcoming the same people who destroyed California rather than keeping these people out and enforcing their values. When Texas becomes blue this will "shock" many people, but this was always in front of everyone. In general, if you want a preview of the United States in the future look at California. "As goes California, so goes the country."
