Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.
A blog post [Update: dead link removed] discussed a recent Brooking's study [Update: dead link removed] about Echo Boomers and their views on countries as allies or problems. When it comes to China, Echo Boomers differ from former U.S. generations as more Echo Boomers tend to see China as a potential problem. Of course, this study failed to clarify how Echo Boomers saw China.
As an example of this, Echo Boomers grew up in a world where jobs were being exported to China to capitalize on cheap labor. The U.S. lost manufacturing jobs, which have historically paid well, while China made major gains. In the past thirty years, China's trade surplus has grown while the U.S.'s trade deficit has increased. Echo Boomers may see China as a threat only in the sense of economics, not in terms of military.
But I've cautioned a nuance here with thought leaders on this subject: some Echo Boomers see the U.S. as the problem in this situation of exporting jobs. This means that China isn't a threat to them, but incompetent U.S. leadership is. How does this play out over time? It will vary by the group, as some Echo Boomers view this as a reason to leave the U.S. entirely, while others may vote for policies that haven't been popular in decades. I've already noted multiple times that ambitious young male Echo Boomers have left (and are leaving) the United States. China is one destination along with other countries in Asia.
Related To This and the Impacts
As an additional note, many Echo Boomers think that China will be the most powerful country by 2025. If you spend any time at all reading online news, you will know that this view is prevalent throughout U.S. media. While I don't doubt that China will become the dominant power, it should be of note that for a generation that reads a lot of online news, this view is not surprising. Anyone who's visited China will feel impressed by its rise as well. China has already surpassed the United States in terms of innovation and I expect this will continue throughout this century (maybe longer).
Notice theme? According to most online media, globalism is a good thing. Yet Echo Boomers don't see a higher standard of living, lower costs, better jobs, and they won't live as long as their parents. In an Echo Boomer's mind (and this frequently comes up with them), how is globalism good?
Even though Echo Boomers trust the internet and use it frequently as I've noted, an online narrative will never defeat personal experience. I'm neither saying anying positive or negative about globalism, but noting here that if people don't feel the positive effects in their life over time, your narrative will fail and then they won't trust you.
I think that Echo Boomers' views on China as a potential problem (mostly from an economic standpoint) will encourage them to vote and fight for policies which favor domestic production over foreign production, if they remain in the United States. We may be seeing the end of the view that globalism is a good thing, as Echo Boomers - who are experiencing high rates of unemployment - see China as an economic threat (or other countries that Echo Boomers perceive to be doing the same).
Male Echo Boomers and China
As I noted, ambitious young male Echo Boomers see Asia as a destination to start a business, family and receive superior products and services. Consider that most of the items Americans buy are made in China! The standards of living in China - especially healthcare - are significantly higher than the United States. Young men know this inherently because it's politically popular to attack young men. I've noted consistently that Obama and Democrats have wisely targeted young women because they vote more. This is a good strategy in the short run, but it does carry longer term costs that the Soviet Union proved.
In a nutshell, my granny's observation that "girls mature faster than boys" explains why it makes sense to target young women over young men. Young women have early advantages. What goes missing that we saw in the Soviet Union is what happens when young men mature? You can see what happened in the Soviet stagnation. The Soviet Union even got cute for a period and tried to stop people from leaving, but that further hurt the country because people won't invest in something they hate. Putting up walls creates an environment of contempt.
The young male Echo Boomers who have left the United States and continue to leave the United States will create powerful innovation in other countries. They will help those countries avoid stagnation that will put pressure on those leaders. But they're too young to do anything right now and as I highlighted, young women are always more popular in every society than young men. Young women are more likeable across the board. This is partially explained by my granny's observation.
But what I would caution any leader is something too many people miss: you can predict a country's future by evaluating how it treats its young men. The Soviet Union provided a great example of this in the past. The United States is currently providing a great example of this now (watch out China because you will be tempted to alienate your young men someday). This group of young men does not fear China nor see China as a threat. Rather they welcome a society that encourages and desires innovation regardless of what "group" it originated.
Note the Perspective
One point to remind people here: this article is written from a U.S. leadership view, not Chinese view. Unbalanced trade leads to long term resentment and possible conflict. I am not advising any foreign leadership, but if I was, I'd highlight that every country should aim for trade and business that prevents long term resentment. As Sun Tzu remarked, all wars are won in economics long before they're won on the battlefields. Novices love talking strategy, while experts grasp that logistics determine outcomes. Sun Tzu ultimately recognized that you win by never getting into a war in the first place. In other words, think about how you can win but in the same context as the other person can win. You'll never have to worry about later resentments because everyone is winning.
This applies to other countries as well. "Are we creating a bonfire of later resentment?" Remember that thinking requires work and effort. The best use of critical thought is creating situations that age well.
