Thursday, March 24, 2011

Will Low Marriage Rates Sap Future Housing Demand?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

As an Echo Boomer, I often hear from adults that the lack of interest in marriage among Echo Boomers will suppress housing demand. In fact, a recent study [Update: dead link removed] has been used by some adults as evidence that Echo Boomers will have low marriage rates, and thus a low demand for housing.

First, I've written about the housing recovery and will write more in the future with pertinent economic data. Frankly, marriage rates of Echo Boomers are far less of a concern than the Millennial financial data. This is not a generation that looks prepared to own homes.

Second, female Echo Boomers that are unable to find partners tend to express interest in owning a home later in life regardless of their marital status. Male Echo Boomers, by contrast, do seem satisfied with renting. My point here is that even if all Echo Boomers stayed single (already untrue), and most female Echo Boomers bought homes and most male Echo Boomers rented, you'd still end up with similar numbers for housing demand in the future plus you'd have added rent on top of that. More single men and women mean more demand for housing in general, though this demand will be for both homes and places to rent (apartments, condos, etc).

Remember that a large generation with more single people will require more housing in general of any type.

Third, marriage doesn't equate to home ownership. Although married Echo Boomers I speak with tend to mention interest in owning homes more than single Echo Boomers, a few single Echo Boomers have already achieved home ownership.