What Industries Will Be Winners or Losers With Generation Y?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

What They Want Now and What They Will Want

Echo Boomers are changing our society in a multitude of ways. The Millennial generation doesn't want what its parents wanted, and if you want your business to succeed or if you want to lower the probability that you'll be in the unemployment line, take note of the winners and losers with this generation now and in the future.

Winner: The Rise of the Renters.

I could write pages on why Echo Boomers won't own homes like former generations, but I think numbers and graphs tell a better story. Only a third of Echo Boomers express interest in ever owning a home. And the current data?

[Update: dead image]

I expect that things will change over the next few decades, but for now, real estate agents will struggle with this generation in selling homes. Of course, if real estate agents focus their energy on landlords they might succeed. Otherwise, if you rent out decent homes or apartments, prepare for a large customer base among Echo Boomers, but be aware that they can move out quickly if they don't like it. They will socially express their contempt too.

Before I continue writing about Echo Boomers current preference for real estate, one update to make here after having hundreds of conversations with people about this point involves both Echo Boomers' future preference and iGenZ. Right now Echo Boomers prefer renting. This does not mean they will prefer to rent in the future. Likewise, as iGenZ matures, following generations tend to differ than the previous generation. I would not be surprised if iGenZ actually wants to own homes earlier than Echo Boomers as the same age. Think carefully about what I am writing here, as it carries statistical implications. An Echo Boomer at 25 may not care to own a home, but an iGenZ at 25 will more than likely want to own a home. (I'm not comparing groups at the same year of time, such as 2015, but at the same age in their maturity.)

As for the type of real estate - Echo Boomers are the social generation. They love living around their friends.

Winner: Education Is the New Homeownership For Echo Boomers

Yes, I think that education is in a serious bubble (see When Will the Higher Education Bubble Pop?). But I doubt that the Millennial generation will recognize this. The reason for my doubt: over half of Echo Boomers state interest in pursuing a degree, and a third of Echo Boomers with degrees already want to go to graduate school or further their education in some way.

The next generation (iGenZ) may see the error in their older siblings ways: too much faith in education. But for now, there's no indication among the Echo Boomers I speak to that they're changing their view on education. As I've stated in my posts, the stories Echo Boomers tell about education over time will foreshadow whether iGenZ and future generations respect higher education.

The winners here are the trade schools and community colleges - not only do you save Echo Boomers money, Echo Boomers tend to recommend these places to their friends. In fact, when other Echo Boomers go back to school during an education bubble a community college or trade school will hold the highest appeal. Large universities still attract top students, so for now, they're winning too.

Loser and Winner: Marriage Is Dead, But Other Opportunities Exist

If you're in school, and you're considering becoming a divorce attorney or marital counselor, beware: only 21% of Echo Boomers are married! Those may have been the hot professions at one time (especially divorce attorneys), but the future seems dim for them now. Unless those 21% of Echo Boomers line up in divorce court or try to "work things out," the need for divorce law or marital counseling may be history. You could always do the bureaucratic thing and overcomplicate their life in some other way - that is what both of your professions are good at.

Keep in mind that while Echo Boomers are ditching marriage, they seem to favor serial monogamy, which might become its own profitable industry. For instance, Susan Walsh asserted about the hook up culture in our interview:

I see hookup culture sticking around for a long while, but there is some backlash already occurring. ... HPV is causing cancers in both sexes, and there is a strain of gonorrhea in the UK, which is now considered untreatable. Of course, there’s the very real possibility of a new, opportunistic virus, much as we saw with AIDS in the early 80s. A worsening of the outlook in this area could create behavioral changes.

Behavioral changes may create more marriages, but if we see increased STDs or increased protective methods against these diseases, some businesses will need to create these products - whether prescription drugs or advanced protective measures.

And with marriage rates declining, Echo Boomers seem to be putting their money into other places: the fitness industry, the outdoor industry, and the fashion industry. In other words, you still have many other opportunities to have a wide customer base. Keep an eye out for the single Echo Boomers and watch where they spend their money (see Products and Services for Single Female Echo Boomers and Products and Services for Single Male Echo Boomers).

Other winners:

1. Technology - if you're in the engineering profession, prepare to work. Since I've been speaking with engineers at several local colleges, robotics seems to come up the most. There is a growing demand for electrical engineers to perfect the robotics industry. This cuts both ways, however, as many engineer friends would tell you that they will eventually not be needed. I agree, but I think we're still two decades (and maybe more) away from this moment.

Don't forget that this point means technology will do well even in situations where it makes no sense. Even as an Echo Boomer, I cannot understand Facebook or other social media. You socialize in person. But Echo Boomers are not like this! Even though something makes no sense (and may even be something they regret), don't overthink the possible success. Echo Boomers do what others do; they are not an individualistic generation, so they lack the reflection ability to evaluate if what they're doing aligns with their values.

2. Medical - Echo Boomers will need more medical care as they age. Keep in mind, the obesity rate the in the United States is growing, and this offers medical opportunities for doctors, nurses and those in the research field. I do not expect Echo Boomers to have longer life expectancies than their parents, so they will need medical earlier than you might expect.

3. Innovative Science - the world faces major hurdles in the twenty-first century, and this industry will boom if science continues to overcome these hurdles. Innovative Science includes, but is not limited to, stem cell research, fuel cell technology, electric cars and transportation, robotics, and 3D printing. For Echo Boomers closest to these industries, China and many countries in Asia will make the best destinations, as their lack of bureaucracy favors innovation over the United States.

4. Green Energy Industry - Echo Boomers like environmentally friendly companies, and green energy not only saves money, but builds a sustainable world. Echo Boomers are unlikely to forget $4 gallon per gallon of gas. In fact, my theory of electric cars doing well in the future centers around the pain that Echo Boomers felt when gas was $4 a gallon.

Generation Y: 3 Social Shifts In Perception

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

Column Quick Summary:
Echo Boomers define themselves through their relationships. Echo Boomers value time over money. Echo Boomers buy products based on peer tips.

Echo Boomers see high value in their peers, whether that's in the form of personal relationships or peer suggestions. Facebook, MySpace and social media in general have contributed to a world where it's easy for Echo Boomers to engage their peers. For instance, the Millennial generation uses these social media at work, whether employers like this or not. Therefore, employers should note a few trends concerning Generation Y.

1. Echo Boomers define themselves through their relationships. Not only can you see this through social media, Echo Boomers also place a high value on personal interactions outside of work. In fact, the phrase "I have a life" came up a lot while talking with Echo Boomers when they mentioned that they disliked their current job.

I've constantly cautioned thought leaders that Echo Boomers perceive value through others, not through their own critical thought. Note that this is a result of people who define themselves and their lives through others. "Others think" means "I think."

But there's another point that thought leaders should consider. Because of social media's rise, Echo Boomers don't allow many of their relationships to end. For instance, Echo Boomers could never relate to this song. Why would a chapter of your life be through when you can just stay connected on Facebook?

In the past, part of growth and maturity meant letting go of relationships - and not for a negative reason. As life changed, people's presence with who they were around changed. Think of a young man hanging out with his player friends, but after becoming a father, spending time with other dads. Echo Boomers aren't like this: they'll be dads, but also still stay in touch with those player friends of theirs. (You can sense the tension this will create, even if Echo Boomers don't realize this.)

2. Echo Boomers value time over money. Note [Update: dead link removed]:

And time is more valued than money. Millennials want flexible schedules and may prefer additional vacation days to cash bonuses.

In other words, offering more money to Echo Boomers to complete extra tasks per week may be the most ineffective strategy. A company could possibly approach this generation with the idea of once you finish your work for the week, you're done regardless of how little time it took you and succeed. However, this would require a clear definition of success along with self-honesty about what the company actually needs.

3. Echo Boomers buy products based on what their friends or other peers mention [Update: dead link removed]:

Millennials are more likely to buy based on peer recommendations.

As I frequently tell thought leaders, Echo Boomers determine value through others. They don't stop and consider their vision, then determine what connects them to their vision in the most effective way. This is a mission-driven person. Echo Boomers determine what to do by asking their peers. They determine value based on their peers.

What this means is that social media and social avenues might be the most effective way to market to the Millennial generation, whereas normal advertising might indicate that your company sells poor quality products. This also means that your "normal" advertising should have a social element to it.

Note and update: I get asked about this point a lot from company leaders because, to quote them, "don't we all determine value because of others" (ie: keeping up with the Jones')?

No. Baby Boomers, as an example, wanted to get away from members of their generation. Generation Xers more than any generation up to this point valued self-reliance. If other members of both generations didn't value those things, it didn't change the pattern. Echo Boomers are not like this (for now and this could change over time). They determine value on the basis of what others think. You will determine very early when you speak with Echo Boomers that they have no mission; their mission is built from what others do.

As a generation, they spend hours looking at what others are doing (social media being a popular example of this). A mission driven person would prefer staring at the wall and coming up with ideas than looking at Facebook.

Is part of this youth? Yes. But this is also an effect of believing that you should always stay in touch with friends that you knew 20 years ago. And as you have a mixture of people with different agendas, you spoil your growth because of inconsistent input (think about the parable of the sower and the seeds).

Generation Y Wants Multi-Tasking Freedom

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

An article [Update: dead link removed] highlights that among Echo Boomers pay does not always mean a better job. For instance:

[M]ore than two of five would accept a lower-paying job that had more flexibility with regard to device choice, social media access, and mobility than a higher-paying job with less flexibility

In other words, if you believe that focus is superior to multi-tasking, Generation Y will challenge your views: they enjoy multi-tasking.

Pertinent Side Note:

The very nature of a cell phone and social media, like Facebook, allow for multi-tasking to occur. In fact, a study counting the number of hours that workers spend on their cell phone, social networks, or doing other non-work related things would be quite fascinating (one radio talking head mentioned that it was 60% of workers' time, but failed to mention the study).

The corporate world, in general, has failed in this area. They still operate on the fallacy of the 40-hour work week, instead of the getting things done efficiently and quickly assumption. A company could easily arrange a policy where once you're done with work, you're done. Not only would work be accomplished quicker, but employees wouldn't feel trapped in a certain time frame - why be productive if you're stuck at the office for a minimum of 8 hours anyway?

On top of that, jobs which require creativity, need more time away from the office anyway. An employees' best ideas don't come when they're at work, but when they're away from work (ie: the shower, an afternoon walk, Archimedes' famous bath, et cetera).

In other words, set your goals, distribute the work, and when employees finish their job, let them go (even if that takes them 2 hours). Not only would employees save time and be motivated, companies could avoid the numerous costs that come when employees try to "fill their day" with something to do (all at company costs, of course).

Basic Human Incentives - School

All humans will consume the maximum amount of time allowed for a task, if completing the task early equals freedom to come up with their own work. I've seen this countless times in research. The exceptions we observe in corporate America occur because the person has other work they need done.

Growing up, I saw this with Echo Boomers and school as well. Unlike many Echo Boomers, my parents home-schooled me for a period of time, I attended private school and I attended public school. In comparing all three, only home-schooling allowed rewards for getting work done early.

For instance, in mathematics:

• When I was home-schooled, I had to complete 2 mathematics lesson per day. Once I finished mathematics, I could complete all my other work and once done, I had the rest of the day to spend with friends who often had finished their work. Most of the time, I finished all my school by 10 or 11AM. Yes, I had over 5 hours a day while most kids were in school to spend time with friends.

• In private school, if I finished mathematics early, they required that we move onto the next lesson. What was the reward for finishing the mathematics book early? We would start studying the next year's mathematics. While we always finished our mathematics' textbooks in private school, we had no incentive to finish our work early.

• In public school, if I finished my mathematics work early, I had to tutor other students. I absolutely hated this. Usually, I would finish my work early and start journaling.

Other generations may have had different experiences, but these patterns show what Echo Boomers experienced. What was the incentive for finishing work early? None, unless you were home-schooled. Obviously, we all valued playing with friends, but school environments prevented this and punished those of us who finished our work early.

Corporate America Is Exactly the Same

If you finish your work early in corporate America, you often get assigned more work. You seldom get a promotion or raise for doing this. (This explains why Echo Boomers are much more interested in entrepreneurship; this does not happen when you help your clients succeed.)

If you want focused employees who do their work well and fast, reward it.

Products and Services for Single Male Echo Boomers

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

Single male Echo Boomers have performed quite well (see What are the characteristics of wealthy Echo Boomers?). They tend to have wealth, and they tend to have concentrated interests. While single male Echo Boomers may have less income than their female counterparts, their concentrated interests reduce their spending overall allowing them to build wealth. Over time, wealth compounds and opens the door to large spending, if desired.

1. Video Games

A growing industry, which performs well among single Echo Boomers in the low income bracket. These Echo Boomers lack the financial power of the other male Echo Boomers, and thus use cheaper forms of entertainment. What's often missing when people look at Echo Boomers who play video games is that these games can involve social activities with friends and are similar to hobbies like fishing. In a sense, video games feel like activities for single male Echo Boomers.

When writing about video games, it is worth mentioning that many video game companies fail. This is also true for platforms - Sega no longer produces a platform. Think about the industry as a whole - not the game or even platform, but everything involved. High demand for successful video games will create a lot of winners in related industries.

2. Sports and the Outdoors

Whether you are looking at fitness or outdoor activities, like hiking, single males tend to seek out these areas. For outdoor activities I would focus financial effort on things like hunting and camping, while for fitness, things like Crossfit, Strongman, et cetera tend to perform quite well for men. Men also make up more gym rats than women (in general), so gyms should still consider that their more consistent demand will be men. Because Echo Boomers are more social, I expect Crossfit and other social fitness groups will do better than many anticipate.

Keep in mind, the cross-selling potential here is massive: single males, who work out, tend to also spend money on nutrition and supplements. Don't miss supplements like protein powder and shakes, energy drinks, and other supplements that Echo Boomers demand. The hobby itself may not be as profitable in the long run as some of these necessities or complementary goods. In addition, some of these supplements have high demand outside of the fitness industry. Red Bull makes a great example of this, as they are extremely successful in both inside and outside the fitness industry.

3. Survivalism and Survival Gear

Some single male Echo Boomers are "out of city" types (ones who move out of the city to be alone), and some are just interested in survival itself. Think about selling products that maximize a person's sustainability without others. For instance, power generators will sell to this group along with any kind of survival gear or livestock. Males like production in general (even male animals do) and anything that allows them to produce more will always be a winner among the male demographic. What's slightly different with male Echo Boomers is how and where you can target this group.

This is a growing demographic among male Echo Boomers; as I discussed financial goals with males, I noticed the trend of young men wanting to exit modern civilization (less than 20%, but greater than 10%). This happens throughout history too; the Roman civilization was founded by young male outcasts from other civilizations.

4. Financial Products

Single male Echo Boomers possess more wealth than their female counterparts. In general, they do not possess more income, but since they spend less than their female counterparts, they accumulate wealth faster. They are more likely to have retirement accounts, own homes and have brokerage accounts. Obtaining business from these single males will be important if the financial industry is where you hope to make money. While innovation has been lacking in the financial industry, if you do innovate, I would start with this group as they are the most likely to be excited about this.

Don't limit yourself to the United States either here. One young man I met privately, Neil Strauss (not an Echo Boomer himself, but has significant influence over many male Echo Boomers, especially the wealthy ones), mentioned that he was seeking to broaden his citizenship. While he listed his own reasons, I suspect that more young men will be seeking this in the future. This opens a new world of financial products and this is one way that non-American businesses can appeal to young male Echo Boomers leaving the United States. (Note that Neil Strauss wrote Emergency, which would also appeal to these groups of young men).

5. Topical Blogs

This references advertising and marketing, as topical blogs do not always make good businesses themselves. Content can be a great business in some cases, but it can vary heavily. But how do you reach single male Echo Boomers with your products and services?

Advertising and market your product on topical blogs (or concentrated content). As an example, you can review the demoprahics on one of my favorite blogs, Calculated Risk [Update: dead link removed]. Notice the percentage of males-to-females; males tend to read topical blogs, while females tend to read personal or self-help blogs. Obviously there are exceptions, but if you are spending money on advertising, you want to play in favor of the statistics.

This applies to other topical media as well. You will observe that sports media is almost all consumed by men - and sports media is topical media. Sports media also make a great place to advertise products that you'll sell to men, so you get both advantages. I personally view media related to fitness, such as media from BodyBuilding.com. These highlight examples of how you can make money from both the topics as well as advertise related products to men.

Update. Since I get a lot of questions about this ("do I need to start a blog?"), I'll highlight that this can take many forms. A great example is this video with John Romaniello speaking about his book Man 2.0. The video targets fitness enthusiasts and we all see the marketing of the book. But a video like this could also be used to market products like (1) coaching, (2) nutritional products, (3) other fitness content (magazines, books, programs, etc), and the like. The key that I highlight with people is that young men tend to see this out with the internet - they heavily rely on topical search. People may wonder, "Don't young women topically search?" and the answer is they do as well, but not as much. Young women receive much more attention than young men, so they can rely on more social input than young men. For this reason, when young women feel stuck, I find that they often seek help from people whereas young men look for helpful content online. Before the internet, young men would do this at the library - topical books appealed to young men much more than young women in those days.

Products and Services for Single Female Echo Boomers

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

1. Details Matter

I once watched as my significant other purchased a pair of boots on Amazon. She spent three hours looking at the pair of boots. She looked at where the zipper was placed, what the color of the zipper was, how it was attached to the boots, how far up and down the zipper went, and on. She looked at the color of the boots, then compared that color to the colors of her pants. She looked at how the sole of the boot was attached to the rest of the boot. I could go on. She studied those boots for hours. And she bought them.

My significant other spent three hours looking at all these details over and over again. You may feel I'm repeating this point - and I am. She spent three hours looking at the products, related products, and related items to the related items.

Details matter to female Echo Boomers and they want visual details not descriptive details relative to the product (notice how this product was fashion). This doesn't mean you can skip the descriptions. But it means that you need to include media that make finding every detail that they'll want to know.

With boots as an example, the wrinkle of the boot when someone wears it matters. The same with the pants that the person's wearing: how does it match? That contrast could make or break your sale. It's simple things like this that carry huge weight with female Echo Boomers.

2. Language

Unbeknownst to most fitness readers, most articles for men are also written for women. What differs is wording. Men want to be jacked and ripped. Women want to be toned and lean. Some of the top fitness writers for men have pen names that have almost the exact article for women because all they need to change is the wording, images and a bit of the structure. This applies to every product that overlaps for male and female Echo Boomers. If they'll both demand the product, don't be afraid to have different sales strategies for what will appeal to each.

I include this because sometimes you have a product that will sell to both men and women. You only need to change a few minor details. Fitness articles, magazines and books make a good example of this. You don't need to build the wheel.

3. Shopping Experience

This applies more to the "online" businesses than the businesses with shops. Female Echo Boomers want to feel that there is a shopping experience even when they go to your website to purchase a product. Even if you have to mimick a shelf online (remember Amazon doing this with books?), it's worth doing as it feels like a shopping experience.

When a person shops at a store, there are often related or identical products from competitors side-by-side. Also, as I noted above in detail matter, be aware of showing products with details. Descriptions, reviews, images and anything that allows female Echo Boomers the ability to shop for the product they want.

Six Services That Are Selling And Will Continue To Sell

Among single female Echo Boomers, businesses that specialize in the following six areas will see the most growth. Outside the medical and school systems, which will always be profitable institutions, these areas will help capture the single female Millennial demographic.

1. Home Security

Safety and security are a primary concern of single females, especially Echo Boomers. In sales, the phrase "safety and security" works seven times better for single females than it does for single males. I've spoken with several individuals in the home security industry, and their dominant demographic: single females (one of them told me that married males will buy home security, but her customers were seldom single males). Female Echo Boomers are no exception here; they'll want home security for a place they rent (if allowed) or own.

2. Real Estate

One third of female Echo Boomers express interest in owning a home someday. I would expect that as more single female Echo Boomers become homeowners, more single Echo Boomers will want homes (in other words, we'll see a rising effect as more homeowners influence other potential homeowners). If you look at the current data (below), you'll see that the growth potential here is quite high. Recall, that Generation Y is the second largest generation in American history.

[Update: dead image]

3. Fashion

One of the common jokes about living in West Texas (ie: Midland) was that you never knew who were the wealthy men of the area. You could be talking to a man in worn-out jeans, a dirt-covered jean jacket, and old boots, but the man had 9-digit wealth. Not with women. You knew which women had money because of one word: fashion.

Females of all generations tend to spend large amounts on fashion. And since the fashion world constantly changes, any fashion business you build will have a never-ending crop of customers who constantly need something "new." Could you ask for a better business?

4. Photography

After spending several years speaking with business owners, I learned from photographic studio owners that their major customer were females. Although a low marriage rate might imply that there will be a lack of interest in photography (no family photos, wedding photos, et cetera), single female Echo Boomers will still buy photography for their children (remember single mothers are a profitable group), or various life events, like special parties with friends. Also, Echo Boomers themselves will spend money on photos of themselves. I would expect photography to do well with female Echo Boomers and there's a variety of angles here - selling photography, equipment, courses, et cetera.

As online dating becomes more acceptable, the explosion in photography will be popular. Don't miss what females want here? Photographs that validate them. I mentioned privately to a few online dating executives a while back that females aren't using online dating for dating; they're using it for validation. My point was that they should help their female customers with the photographs that do the best.

5. Religious material

Religious organizations offer the opportunity to cross sell products, such as DVDs, books, et cetera. Material published for single females may have more success among Echo Boomers than Xers or other generations. Of the Echo Boomers I speak to, when reviewing accounts, females are more likely than males to purchase items at religious stores or donate to religious organizations.

The pre-requisite to this? The social environment. Females will spend time and money at your religious institution as long as they enjoy the social environment.

6. Travel

Single female Echo Boomers express interest in travel more than single male Echo Boomers. I would use caution here though, as this industry seems ripe for disruption. Whatever route you go with this industry, make sure you have a future. I think the age of the travel agent has passed (as an example), while being a tour guide in key cities may be a new path to wealth provided you can be easily spotted before someone arrives.

"No Houses Please. We're Echo Boomers."

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

3 Reasons Why We Won't See A Demand For Housing Among Echo Boomers For a While

"I want to buy a home in the next five years or so, but honestly man, I don't know how I'm going to do it. I just don't make that much money." ~ One out of many Echo Boomers who've said similar statements

Housing prices fell, so it's a good time to buy, right?

Not if you're an Echo Boomer. For all the articles about Echo Boomers being one of the largest generations in American history (some saying the largest, some saying the second largest), this generation lacks the financial power it will take to buy a home. Add to that encumbrance the fact that some Echo Boomers don't want to buy a home; wanderlust has more appeal to these Echo Boomers. We may see a housing recovery in the next few years, or we may not. However, one thing is certain: at this present time, Echo Boomers won't be driving the housing recovery.

1: Echo Boomers have light wallets.

Suppose that half of Echo Boomers wanted to buy a home tomorrow, and put in an application. How many of them would be approved? In the traditional sense, not even 10%, but if some managed an FHA loan where they had to put a minimum down, we might see more homeowners - though, there would be more problems if that occurred.

Before dealing with non-traditional loans, let's review how prepared Echo Boomers are for a traditional down payment of 10-20% on a mortgage. The below graph is the financial distribution of Echo Boomers with a red line showing a rough estimate of how much Echo Boomers would need in assets for a small down payment. On this graph, I used $15,000 as a minimum amount - which keep in mind, would only be a 20% down payment for a $75,000 home. But we don't expect Echo Boomers to buy $200,000 homes yet, right?

[Update: dead image]

The biggest problem with the above graph? In many areas, a $75,000 home would be an excellent deal - many Echo Boomers will need much more than $15,000 for their first home.

Of course, the most obvious rebuttal I hear is that Echo Boomers could try other loans, like an FHA loan where they could put down less than 5%. The trouble with this logic is that it fails to consider any financial emergency after Echo Boomers buy a home. As we can see from the above graph, few Echo Boomers are prepared to buy a home, and in many cases, they would be stretching their net worth to buy a home. What would happen in a financial emergency? A Millennial housing boom might quickly turn into a housing bust with so many Echo Boomers walking below and on the line.

Remember the following data:

[Update: dead image]

90% of Echo Boomers have fewer than $1,500. Does that sound like a massive generation waiting to buy a home? One financial emergency, and they would be exiting their mortgage. By contrast, 20-25% of foreign Echo Boomers look like they're ready to buy homes, only there are fewer of them. Add to that the fact that many foreign Echo Boomers live in the United States for education only, and plan to return to their homeland when they are finished (as a general trend, most Indian and Chinese students tell me that they intend to return to India or China when they complete their college degree).

My major take-away point here is that Echo Boomers lack the financial power to buy homes. Things may change in the future, but for now, we shouldn't expect to see them rushing to buy homes. If they do without building assets first, based on the above data, we may see a terrible bust shortly thereafter.

2: Do Echo Boomers want homes?

"Why would I ever buy a home? You can say that renting is 'throwing money away,' but you'll never get all the money you paid in maintenance back, so ..." ~ One of the many skeptical Echo Boomers about homeownership

A real estate agent's worst nightmare: someone who thinks homeownership is "throwing money away." However, skeptical Echo Boomers have a point: the time and money that goes into home maintenance is never recovered, nor the money paid to interest, nor the money paid to homeowner's insurance. For all the praise of owning a home ("building equity" or "best investment"), the downside is seldom spelled out for people - until recently. For an example, the Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, questioned home ownership.

Granted, this is not a popular notion here in the United States, but it is a valid statement. Renting, in some cases, is superior to home ownership.

I speak with many Echo Boomers who love to move around a lot, and don't intend to stay in their area. If they plan to move to other states or cities, why buy a home? Not only is there the costs of insurance, interest and maintenance, but you can't always rely on your home selling for what you paid for when you're ready to move. The last thing you want when you receive a job is to be tied down to a home.

While it's difficult to assess in the long run, Echo Boomers may not be a generation that values home ownership as much as former generations. Pendulum swings of society often go back and forth (consider this with iGenZ and note they may favor home ownership earlier at comparable ages). Echo Boomers may be the backlash generation against home ownership. Or, Echo Boomers are currently responding to their economic reality and will eventually buy homes. One thing is certain, however, Echo Boomers don't want homes right now.

3: Your graduate degree is your castle.

"Personally, I'll take a Ph.D. over a home." ~ An Echo Boomer expressing financial goals

Echo Boomers value higher education, above and beyond the basic undergraduate degree. Throughout college, I read that bachelor's degrees were the new high school diploma, while professional degrees were the new college degrees. True or not, this fever caught on as more Echo Boomers tell me their goal is to continue their education beyond an undergraduate education.

The problem, however, is that a graduate degree is not always a path to a higher income. As a case in point of this, many people in my profession bring in a higher income than many college professors with Ph.D.s. Add to that my profession doesn't require a college degree whatsoever, so even someone like myself, who wasted a few years in college, is behind others, who remained in my profession without wasting money on education. The point here is that higher degrees don't mean Echo Boomers will be wealthier in the future.

Higher education can bring costs in the form of student loans. These massive loans for graduate degrees (often in the $40,000 to $60,000 range) might be the mortgage of the future. Keep in mind, many Echo Boomers will defer payments, only increasing the principal balance of their student loans. The financial commitment these Echo Boomers have to higher degrees limits their other possibilities, like buying a home.

(Higher education costs time. The same time a person invests in higher education could be invested in doubling work on a job to build experience or working a related job. A person could also invest that time in creating a business. I often speak of the financial cost of education, but it's worth noting the time cost for education that will possibly impact delayed home-ownership over time.)

Even if we assume that Echo Boomers with graduate degrees will make more money, we must also state that many of them will also possess more debt. This debt will lengthen the time it takes them to buy their first home (assuming they want one), and will limit the type of home they can buy. You may think, "But they have a higher income," but the reality of costs toward commitments adds up quickly.

The final point on graduate degrees is that they increase an Echo Boomer's opportunity in the form of work, while limiting an Echo Boomer's opportunity in the form of costs. Essentially, these Echo Boomers have more doing freedom, but less consuming freedom. However, this may be a reflection of Millennial values - doing beats consuming. But if that opinion remains prevalent among Echo Boomers, home ownership will lack any appeal.

4: Remember the Pendulum [update from private discussions]

Be careful about reading that Echo Boomers won't ever become home owners. The Baby Boom generation lived one of the freest existences in American history - "We'll drop everything we're doing and go to California" (an actual quote from a teacher in high school who boasted about their life without car insurance or a need to have a job). What did Baby Boomers do? Create the most bureaucracy they could imagine. Why? People often rush from one extreme to another extreme, rather than moderating their position.

Echo Boomers may be the same. They may not favor home ownership in their youth, then turn into the strongest advocates of it ever. It's impossible to know, but I caution people on taking extreme positions under the assumption that "people will always think" a certain view. People change. Realtors can use this time for a possible future pivot and that also leads me to the next point.

Often the generation that follows a generation will have different beliefs. iGenZ at a comparable age may favor home ownership. A high demand for renting may cause rents to become unaffordable or absurd relative to home prices. In the same way that no Echo Boomer understands a world of "no car insurance" (Baby Boom generation's youth), someone from iGenZ may not understand why Echo Boomers preferred renting over owning.

Will Low Marriage Rates Sap Future Housing Demand?

Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.

As an Echo Boomer, I often hear from adults that the lack of interest in marriage among Echo Boomers will suppress housing demand. In fact, a recent study [Update: dead link removed] has been used by some adults as evidence that Echo Boomers will have low marriage rates, and thus a low demand for housing.

First, I've written about the housing recovery and will write more in the future with pertinent economic data. Frankly, marriage rates of Echo Boomers are far less of a concern than the Millennial financial data. This is not a generation that looks prepared to own homes.

Second, female Echo Boomers that are unable to find partners tend to express interest in owning a home later in life regardless of their marital status. Male Echo Boomers, by contrast, do seem satisfied with renting. My point here is that even if all Echo Boomers stayed single (already untrue), and most female Echo Boomers bought homes and most male Echo Boomers rented, you'd still end up with similar numbers for housing demand in the future plus you'd have added rent on top of that. More single men and women mean more demand for housing in general, though this demand will be for both homes and places to rent (apartments, condos, etc).

Remember that a large generation with more single people will require more housing in general of any type.

Third, marriage doesn't equate to home ownership. Although married Echo Boomers I speak with tend to mention interest in owning homes more than single Echo Boomers, a few single Echo Boomers have already achieved home ownership.