Note that this article has been updated to also include some of the private discussions with thought leaders in the past. You can read my final overview of my research into the Millennial generation along with what I predicted and what happened as they matured at this link. While I still speak about Echo Boomers and iGenZ privately, I seldom add new articles to this specific blogspot site. If you're reaching out about a speaking engagement, you can contact me at the research firm SqlinSix.
And Where Will They Live In the Future?
Within the age range of 18-28, 54% of Echo Boomers live in the suburbs (32% live in the "central city"). Considering that fewer than 11% of Echo Boomers are homeowners as of 2011 (see this article for details), I see a few possibilities about Echo Boomers and homeownership.
If transportation costs can stay low, the suburbs might continue to offer the preferred place for Echo Boomers to live. However, in order for transportation costs to stay low, alternative transportation options must surface. I doubt the price of oil will ever return to below $3 a gallon for a sustainable period of time (though, anything is possible), and thus other transportation options, such as electric vehicles or natural gas vehicles, must rise in popularity. If Echo Boomers don't spend time worrying about how much higher the price of oil will go, some of them may place down roots and start buying homes.
However, if oil continues to be the preferred method of transportation, I would expect few Echo Boomers within the next decade to plan buying a home. Why? Because Echo Boomers can't bet that their standard of living will improve in the future, so throwing money down a home could become a major liability. Remember that the pain of $4 a gallon is still fresh in their mind along with the recessionary effects that $4 per gallon created.
I'll add another trend I've noticed: From 2010 to 2011, fewer Echo Boomers have expressed interest in eventually buying a home. For instance, in 2010, about one third of Echo Boomers stated that they wanted to buy a home within the next five years. In 2011, only about 20% of Echo Boomers express interest in buying a home within the next five years. While the change may seem confusing, when we consider how much food and oil prices have changed within the last year - reducing Echo Boomers' purchasing power - we can see that Echo Boomers remain dubious about a positive financial future.
Nonetheless, with 54% of Echo Boomers currently in the suburbs, I'd expect that some of them will eventually settle down to buy homes.
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